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The S&P's Roller Coaster Rally
The S&P 500 rallied hard from the mid-June 52-week low to the mid-August high, and then it retraced about 50% of that rally in response to Powell’s hawkish summer rhetoric. But then he caused investors to launch a speculative rally.
Signs That Inflation May Be Waning
Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell sounded quite hawkish at his brief Jackson Hole speech on Friday, and investors were spooked. Although the CPI hit 40-year high of 9.1% year-over-year in June, I see plenty of signs that inflation is in retreat.
It All Rides On Inflation And The Fed, But Signals Are Looking Bullish
So far this year, the Federal Reserve has been removing liquidity from the markets via rate hikes and quantitative tightening, hence the 1H22 crash.
Investors Await Bullish Catalysts As Inflation, Interest Rates, And Money Supply Growth Show Signs Of Topping
Although the Fed likely will raise rates another 50-75 bps in July, it will not raise as much as the market is pricing in, and indeed the Fed may instead be forced to ease later this year or early next year.
Despite Uncertainties From War, Oil, Inflation, And Interest Rates, Have Stocks Put In A Bottom?
As the economy has emerged from the pandemic and some sense of normalcy has returned around the world, investors have returned to wrestling with the potential impacts of unwinding 13 years of unprecedented monetary stimulus (QE and ZIRP).
Volatility Returns As New Challenges Emerge; So Quality Is The Focus For Equity Investors In 2022
Investors are going to have to muster up a stronger bullish conviction for the market to achieve a sustainable upside breakout.
Entering Q4 With Mix Of Optimism And Caution Suggests Hedged Long Positioning
While the cap-weighted indexes have surged to new highs as recently as early September, the equal-weight and small-cap indexes have been trading sideways since March.
Blowout Earnings, Low Interest Rates, And Dovish Fed, But Have Stocks Hit A Peak?
Another positive month for the major indexes, despite plenty of new bricks in the proverbial Wall of Worry.
Anticipating A Robust Q2 Earnings Season – And Launch Of Q3 2021
As earnings season gets going, I believe we will see impressive reports reflecting stunning YOY growth in both top and bottom lines.
Earnings Momentum Trumps Overblown Worries About Inflation And Valuations
Stocks are once again challenging all-time highs as the forward earnings estimates are being raised at a historically high rate in the wake of another impressive earnings season that blew away all consensus expectations.
Strong Earnings Growth Is Expected... And Crucial To Justifying Equity Valuations
After a strong Q1, stocks continue to rise on exuberant optimism, and the mega-cap dominated S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 just hit new highs this week.
10 Industries In Secular Decline
Movie theaters have undoubtedly struggled following COVID-19 restrictions that kept doors closed to customers and pushed back the release dates of major films into 2021 and 2022.
Vaccines And Massive Stimulus Fuel 2021 Optimism; Plus Baker’s Dozen Long-Term Performance Update
No doubt, 2020 was a challenging and often terrifying year.
Positioning For A Strong 2021 And Better Times Ahead
By some measures, the month of November was the best month for global stock markets in over 20 years, and the rally has carried on into December.
Is COVID-Driven Demand Anomalous Or Sustainable?
The unprecedentedly severe pandemic-induced recession has been fought off by equally unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, including unlimited liquidity at zero interest rates.
Investors Whistle Past The Graveyard As Valuation Multiples
The five FAAAM stocks have been doing most of the heavy lifting for the broad cap-weighted market indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for the past five years, which has not been particularly healthy for the broader stock market.
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