Richard Shaw Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Investment Advisor, Principal, QVM Group LLC

Richard is the managing principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut, with clients across the country.

QVM manages portfolios uniquely designed for each client on a flat fee basis through the client’s own accounts at Schwab, Fidelity or ... more

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Eye On Interest Rate Markets For Clues To Future Economy & Stocks
In combination with declining stock earnings forecasts, interest rate data may suggest that the stock market is not so much good, as possibly too good.
Forecasting Stocks Long-Term Total Return
Looking at 148 years of monthly rolling 10-yr returns for US large-cap stocks, the median total return was 9.36%, with a range of 2.69% to 15.76% at the 25th and 75th percentiles, and negative 4.77% to 21.75% at the 5th and 95th percentiles.
S&P 500 Technical Charts
Let’s explore several ways to view the last 1+ year of S&P 500 price behavior through charts.
S&P 500 Resistance And Support Levels
In the long-term price chart, visual pattern recognition (“technical analysis”) doesn’t tell you much. In the short-term, it can often be a good guide when deciding when to make the next addition to a position.
EC Current Best Choice For Loan Allocation
Looking across the various types of debt available in mutual funds and ETFs, it is clear that ultra-short-term, investment-grade, floating-rate debt (“UST-IG-FR”) is the best current choice.
E Relative Opportunity With US Sectors
The interest rate sensitivity of Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Staples puts them at a disadvantage during the current Fed rate hiking cycle.
Medical Equipment ETF (XHE) Added To Tactical Sleeves
XHE is generally higher return than SPY and XLV, but is also more volatile. However, its Sharpe Ratio is competitive with the S&P 500.
Risk Asset Allocation Based On Momentum Relative To T-Bills
The approach tends to underperform Buy-and-Hold in study periods that do not include Bear markets, and is is better suited to tax-deferred accounts than regular taxable accounts.
Relative Momentum Portfolio Rotation To Minimize Bear Market Risk
Swensen is the CIO of the Yale Endowment, who proposed his “Reference Portfolio” as something from which to depart for a personally suitable portfolio.
Big Changes With New Communications Services Sector
Even though the sector is not yet official, XLC has raised $368 million in just 2 months of existence.
Trend Indications For Key Asset Categories
We are positive on stocks, gold, diversified commodities and some municipal bond categories, but negative on most bonds and equity REITs. Money market funds or ultra-short-term, investment-grade debt funds are a good placeholder for bond allocation.
Compare 10-Year Projections Using Historical And Forecasted Returns
Institutions generally agree that total returns over the next 10 years will be lower than the long-term historical level.
Maximum Drawdown And Allocation Approaches
Maximum Drawdowns occur infrequently but massively, and it typically takes years to break-even with the pre-crash portfolio value.
EC Market Notes: Stock Market Breadth Indications And Allocation Opinion
We are in a late stage of this market, perhaps in the 11th hour. Breadth indicators suggest on balance that stocks are not ready to toss in the towel on the Bull.
E What Types Of Bonds Are Attractive In A Rising Rate Environment?
Bonds are an important part of portfolios, even if in small amounts. We are now in a period of rising interest rates, in which bonds with fixed payments will generate interest income and capital depreciation.
Extremes And Divergences For The S&P 500
Two conditions that often precede market trend reversals are extremes and divergences.
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