Patrick MontesDeOca Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
CEO, Equity Management Academy

The Equity Management Academy was founded based on a belief in the power of education to change lives. After thirty years of trading in markets from New York to Chicago, CEO Patrick MontesDeOca founded the Academy to pass on all he had learned about the financial markets to help traders from ... more

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Retail Apocalypse: Gold And Silver Bottoms
For the past couple of months, inflation has been hurting the economy. Headlines are talking about a “Retail Apocalypse,” as inflation is hammering the retail business.
Gold: A Race To The Bottom
Gold came back up above the weekly Buy 2 level at $1821. $1851 is the weekly Buy 1 level with a daily target of $1856, which was completed. Now we are backtesting the $1851 level.
'Everything Is Halted': Shanghai Shutdowns Are Worsening Shortages
Shanghai shutdowns due to the COVID lockdown are worsening supply shortages globally. The shortages will probably contribute to even higher inflation.
Gold: A Yield Curve Inversion With Inflation Is Rocket Fuel For Prices
Gold is down to a buy level, where a reversion back up to the mean is highly probable. The daily average is $1940 and the weekly average is $1945.
Russia Sets The Stage For A Global Currency War
The markets are confused right now, with black swans appearing, such as the Russia-Ukraine crisis, China is making noises on various fronts over Taiwan, their domestic economy, and Hong Kong.
Gold: Mixed Markets Due To Russia-Ukraine News
We are starting to see that the global economic system is going through a transformation triggered by the pandemic.
Fed Monetary Policy Leading To A Major Crisis
If Fed Funds are raised, then bonds go down, stocks go down, mortgage rates go up and housing prices go down.
The Danger Is Deflation, Not Inflation
The yield curve seems to be suggesting that we may go into a slowdown - the opposite of what the hawkish Fed stance is suggesting.
The Fed Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place
The Fed balance sheet now exceeds almost $9 trillion, which they will need to offload at some point.
Add Gold And Bitcoin Positions
Three interest rate hikes this year are highly unlikely, one is highly probable. Gold is near levels where it is an excellent area to add to your gold long positions. Bitcoin is in an area where it is a good chance to add to your long positions.
What's Up With Gold?
Gold is down 6% or 7% for the year and silver is down 14% or so for the year against these levels of inflation, which are at 40-year highs.
Turkey: The Canary In The Coal Mine
The market may dictate higher interest rates if there is a downgrading of US bonds. The government may also cap the long end of the market, the 30-year bond, and allow the short end of the market to invert.
Gold: Don't Look For Higher Interest Rates Anytime Soon
The dollar is artificially high at the moment because it is based on the perception that interest rates will go up.
Gold Looks Very Attractive
When gold unleashes its reversion to the mean, it will be a strong move and most people will miss it.
Gold: The Seasonal Lows Appear To Be In Place
It has been difficult to trade the metals market over the past year. The fundamentals have been indicating that gold and silver should be shooting up, yet the markets have been going up and down a great deal.
Is Stagflation A Serious Market Risk?
It has been difficult to trade the market based on fundamentals since the pandemic struck. We appear to have several new black swans on the horizon to further muddy the application of fundamentals.
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