Another great work Jeffrey. Low rates create a tautology of problems including a deadly race to safety which, when prolonged lowers yields which lowers income for investors which adversely impacts credit and inflates assets leading to speculation on hard assets rather than investment in growth. Capitalism requires normalized rates and business cycles. If the knuckleheads running the Federal Reserve and government can't figure this out we are all on the long march towards socialism.

Sadly housing is taking a greater and greater percentage of people's incomes which should be tracked even more than housing prices to see a topping off and how healthy housing prices are. Second, even in this graph we see a gradual topping off on prices. Although a drop is still a while off, it will be coming with the next economic downturn.

The issue is not no investment in the future for oil, rather it's too much speculative money from banks to build oil production at prices that are not affordable to keep companies from defaulting on their debt because they are doing economically unsound things. It's an issue of bad banking and low interest rates not resource limitations.

The other issue is that people need to think about the future. Actually America was benefiting by importing cheap oil, as long as the supply doesn't get cut. The simple fact is, the country that extracts oil last gets to use or sell it at the highest price. It is absurd we pump oil and then buy and dump oil back in the ground as a strategic reserve. This is simple insanity.

Nice catch although I'm not so sure about semi equipment from here on out. Even so, this company looks to be doing ok.

LOL solid is the disease you get by drying out your brain for years listening to Yellen's baloney. My baloney has a first name it's Janet. My baloney has a second name its Yellen. Oh I love to listen to her everyday because if I ask her this is what she'll say. Don't save your money everything is great. Math doesn't matter nor debate, I make money out of crape paper everyday.

It's nice to see the dollar bounce. It is bouncing on the fact that there is no massive wasteful stimulation budget going through Congress right now. Hopefully, it will stay that way.

If #Trump installs #GlassStegall and ends the insane regulatory environment that does little to protect the populace it would be the single greatest victory for the American people in decades.

That said, the market is not crashing because #Yellen isn't raising rates substantially and what she does do is slower and slower every day. The bubble won't pop until people start blowing into it or a tear occurs. In the meantime what's driving the market is people getting out of short term deposits waiting to put it in higher term bonds and CDs and getting into the only assets paying decent returns even if it implies bigger and bigger risk (mainly stocks and real estate).

Nice article. I liked your comment "one that can be squeezed into 'solid' only by taking #Yellen for an expert." If indeed she believed things were bright then she would find it in her to meaningfully move interest rates higher. Likewise, the call for stimulus and tax cuts in government would not exist. Indeed, reality is far from a solid economy.

In general, the US is getting what Trump appeared to want: a weaker dollar. Unfortunately, we will see this doesn't help much and has the potential for raising inflation and causing a downturn. A stable dollar is much preferred over anything else. We will see if we get it. In the mean time, keep buying US stocks that have overseas exposure.

If you trace a line from the start with an average steepness, the overage isn't all that much. That said, the housing market is still sustained by the shoddy government agencies Fannie and Freddie who are still backed and guaranteed through the government and the Federal Reserve's rates make a mockery of monetary policy if not capitalism itself. This makes the housing market shaky.

We will see if anything comes that makes it go down (adjust), however, I don't see it collapsing near term. Insanity breeds more insanity until people start falling from roof tops.