Michael Gouvalaris Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Writer at The Technical Investor

Michael Gouvalaris is the author of The Trading Playbook: Two Rule Based Plans for Day Trading and Swing Trading. He is the author of the Technical Investor blog (formerly Mikes Trading Journal) which began in 2009 and has provided timely and accurate technical analysis of the markets and ... more

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Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Dec. 18
The data continues to support the economic expansion; earnings are great and valuation remains reasonable. But it was all about the Fed this week. The Fed’s sharp pivot could have a negative effect on financial conditions in 2022.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Dec. 11
In a slow week for earnings and data, it was all about inflation. Annualized CPI only got worse, but some downward pressure could be coming from the recent drop in oil prices.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Dec. 4
The week began with some positive news regarding Black Friday sales, with total sales coming in +29.8% above last year, as store traffic increased 42.9% (still down 28% compared to 2019). Still the COVID-19 variant loomed in the background.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Nov. 27
The slew of economic data this week largely reinforced that the expansion is still well in tact, as well as the inflation threat. Personal incomes are rising, but not at the pace of cost increases when we subtract government transfer payments.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Nov. 20
Upbeat news from retail giants Walmart and Home Depot kicked off the week. Both companies reported earnings that beat expectations and both raised forward guidance. The total retail sales confirmed with a beat, coming in above the inflation rate.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Nov. 13
S&P 500 earnings per share showed another modest decline this week, dropping from $214.95 to $214.77. 92% of S&P 500 companies have now reported Q3 results. 81% have beaten estimates and results have come in a combined +10.3% above expectations.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Nov. 6
This was the first week that all 4 major averages (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000) made a new record high since February. Strong economic data and earnings continue to drive asset prices higher.
FOMC Review: Fed Finally Reverses Course
The Fed’s balance sheet – illustrated in the chart above – has now grown to $8.6 trillion, or roughly 36% of nominal GDP.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Oct. 30
This was the first week where the effect of the supply chain disruptions showed up in the data. Q3 GDP came in at 2%, while initial estimates in August were for GDP growth of +6%, and if we strip out inventory investments then GDP growth was 0%.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Oct. 23
Companies had been lowering their 2022 sales and earnings guidance because of supply chain disruptions. I believe this was one of the reasons the S&P 500 dipped about 5%. But Q3 results started coming out and the stellar performance streak continued.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Sept. 11
It was a holiday-shortened week with little earnings and economic data, and investors used the opportunity to take some profits. Perhaps the biggest news of the week was the ECB announcement that they would begin reducing its asset purchase program.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Sept. 4
Companies continue to report stellar results and beat market expectations. The economic data was mixed, with the ISM Services & Manufacturing continuing to show the economy is bouncing back strong despite the supply chain issues.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Aug. 28
A market correction could occur at anytime, but it's hard to be ultra bearish in this environment. The Fed could be the only thing that messes this up, if they make a policy mistake. But they seem to be doing everything they can to appease markets.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Sunday, Aug. 22
The S&P 500 doubled from the March 2020 low point in a record 354 trading days. This is the fastest recovery in the post-WWII era. It goes to show what strong earnings, low rates, and government stimulus can do.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Saturday, Aug. 14
The market continues to overlook the COVID-19-related disruptions. With Q2 earnings mostly behind us, all eyes will be on the Jackson Hole Symposium in two weeks, where the Fed could lay the framework for reducing its bond buying program.
Stock Market & Economy Recap - Sunday, Aug. 8
This week's economic data confirms that the economy is booming despite all of the COVID-19-related challenges. So far, the manufacturing sector remains fairly strong, while the services sector is breaking records. Earnings remain stellar.
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