On Bloomberg TV his audiences know him as
the “Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer, having traded the very first interbank US inflation swaps and having been the sole market maker for the CPI futures contract. He is considered as the ...
more On Bloomberg TV his audiences know him as
the “Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer, having traded the very first interbank US inflation swaps and having been the sole market maker for the CPI futures contract. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. Prior to founding
Enduring Investments LLC, a specialty consulting and investment management boutique that offers focused inflation-market expertise, Mr. Ashton worked in research, sales and trading for several large investment banks including Bankers Trust, Barclays Capital, and J.P. Morgan. Since 2003 he has played an integral role in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives markets and is widely viewed as a premier subject matter expert on inflation products and inflation trading. While at Barclays, he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps. He was primarily responsible for the creation of the CPI Futures contract that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange listed in February 2004 and was the lead market maker for that contract. Mr. Ashton has written extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, including papers and book chapters on “Inflation and Commodities,” “The Real-Feel Inflation Rate,” “Hedging Post-Retirement Medical Liabilities,” and “Liability-Driven Investment For Individuals.” He frequently speaks in front of professional and retail audiences, both large and small. He has written two books, most recently “
What’s Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All” in 2016. He also publishes a podcast, “
Cents and Sensibility: the Inflation Guy podcast.” For many years, Mr. Ashton has written frequent market commentary, sometimes for client distribution and sometimes for wider public dissemination. He may be contacted through the contact form on the
Enduring Investments site.
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Latest Comments
Higher Wages: Good For You, Not Good For Stocks
That's true! I would even concede billions rather than millions. But to displace the dollar, that needs to be tens of trillions. I don't think (and I may be wrong!) that you can build a currency on dark commerce alone.
Avoiding The Rattlesnakes In Monetary Policy
Wages are rising at 3.3% per annum. Not sure what "higher wages" means here, but that's well above inflation so it would seem they are responding to low unemployment. Indeed, they are responding almost exactly as the Phillips Curve would suggest: www.talkmarkets.com/.../the-phillips-curve-is-working-just-fine-thanks
So I'm not sure what the objection is. Yes, the Fed doesn't understand how this works, and so they'll screw it up almost for certain. I think we agree on that!!!
Avoiding The Rattlesnakes In Monetary Policy
No, I am saying that interest rates do not affect wages. They can WANT to clip wages because they fear wage inflation, but wage inflation responds to labor supply, not interest rates. See my recent Phillips Curve column.
Avoiding The Rattlesnakes In Monetary Policy
Raising rates will not affect wages.
The Internet Has Not Killed, And Will Not Kill, Inflation
I didn't say it is.
However, M2 has been up steadily at 6%+ per year, which is too high to be consistent with disinflation or deflation. And that money IS on main street.
Can't Blame Trump For Everything
Nowhere close to trillions of dollars of bonds being used as collateral. Most of the derivatives markets trades net - the 500+ figure exaggerates the risk probably by a factor of a thousand at least. Banks are hedged against interest rate increases on their assets anyway. It's changes in their business where they can get hurt. Not to say some won't lose money on bets the Fed was going to go slower, but at least in the US there's essentially zero systemic risk now - not like in 2007.