Michael Ashton Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Inflation Products and Markets Expert

Michael Ashton is Managing Principal at Enduring Investments LLC, a specialty consulting and investment management boutique that offers focused inflation-market expertise. He may be more

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Low Real Yields – You Can’t Avoid Them
Recently, 10-year real yields went to new all-time lows. Right now, they’re at -0.96%.
Trust Masters, Not Models
When times are normal, models can be a big part of what drives your thinking. But times have not been ‘normal’ for a very long time, and this is part of what drives big policy errors (and big forecasting errors)
The Flip Side Of Financialization Of Commodities
No one has ever been able to convincingly prove normal backwardation for individual commodities, because there is no way to get into the collective mind of market participants to know what they really expect the spot price to be in the future.
Why We’re Wrong About Restaurants
Figuring out the macro impact of the virus, while not easy, is in some ways easier than figuring out a lot of the micro.
Inflation Shocks, Inflation Vol Shocks, And 60-40 Returns
Not surprisingly, there has been a lot of debate about the ultimate outcome of the current crisis in terms of causing inflation or disinflation, or even deflation.
Half-Mast Isn’t Half Bad
Right now is probably not the time for the Fed and Congress to pull back and let huge numbers of people and companies go bankrupt.
Last Time Was Different
They say that the four most dangerous words in investing/finance/economics are “This time it’s different.” And so why worry, the thinking goes, about massive quantitative easing and profound fiscal stimulus?
The Big Bet Of 10-Year Breakevens At 0.94%
With current median inflation around 2.9%, 10-year breakevens are being priced at 0.94%. That represents a real yield of about -0.23% for 10-year TIPS and a nominal yield of about 0.71% for 10-year Treasuries.
Why Bond Folks Are More Afraid Of COVID-19
Bond investors had put bond yields at all-time lows. This is especially amazing compared to the levels that yields reached in the Global Financial Crisis.
COVID-19 In China Is A Supply Shock To The World
China is a huge net importer of raw goods (a large part of that is energy), roughly flat on intermediate goods, and a huge net exporter of consumer and capital goods.
I Dream Of GINI – Is Inequality A Function Of Longevity?
Greater inflation tends to cause wealth to concentrate more at the top since the wealthy tend to own more real property and consume a smaller proportion of their incomes.
Post-CPI Analysis - November 2019
Another CPI day dawns bright and cold. But will inflation get heated up again, with a fourth 0.3% print on core, out of five? Or stay cold like last month’s +0.13% on core?
EC A Generous Fed Isn’t Really The Good News It Sounds Like
People give the Fed much more credit for its ability to squelch inflation than it deserves.
Be Quiet, Let The Man Stop Speaking
The Fed has now embarked on a new easing program, as “insurance” and “risk management” against a future slowdown.
How Not To Do Income-Disparity Statistics
Some statistics, though, because they are widely distributed or widely re-distributed and have dramatic implications and are associated with a draconian prescription for action, deserve special scrutiny.
Tariffs And Subsidies ... On Money
The only way that tariffs, and interest rate manipulations, have a chance of being neutral to positive is if they are imposed as a temporary rebalancing (or negotiating) measure and then quickly removed.
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