Menzie Chinn Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more


Latest Posts
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Canada/US: Cumulative And New COVID-19 Fatalities Per Capita
A reasonable person could ask why, if we’ve done such a superb job of managing the crisis in the US, we’ve done so poorly vis a vis Canada.
Implications Of A “No Recovery Package” Outcome
No additional fiscal stimulus now is a recipe for flatlining in Q4.
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Vs. Trend, Pre-COVID-19
Here are two graphs that are useful if you thought everything was hunky-dory employment-wise, even before the pandemic hit.
Business Cycle Peak In Monthly Vs. Quarterly Data
There’s been some debate over how low GDP is relative to peak. One has to be particularly careful in calculations because the monthly peak is different than the quarterly peak.
Nominal Income Targeting And Measurement Issues
One interesting aspect of the debate over nominal GDP targeting relates to growth rates vs. levels.
Business Cycle Indicators - Tuesday, Sept. 15
With today’s industrial production release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
For The Innumerate
There are different ways to look at COVID-19 death rates. Take a look.
Charting the various nowcasts, two-thirds of the way through Q3.
Business Cycle Indicators - Friday, September 4
With today’s employment situation release, here’s a picture of five indicators tracked by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Trade Deficit Surges During The Recession
The trade balance hit -$63.6 billion (monthly, seasonally adjusted) in July. The trade balance has been deteriorating since the recession began, in contrast to what usually happens.
August Private Payrolls
ADP released yesterday its August numbers, showing slow growth.
Business Cycle Indicators - Tuesday, September 1
IHM/Markit notes that the monthly GDP estimate implies a modest downturn in August and September numbers, given the current tracking estimate for quarterly GDP.
Inflation Sensitivity To Gaps And Shortfalls
The responsiveness of inflation is both economically and statistically more significant when using the shortfall measure.
The Net International Investment Position Of The US
Since 2016Q4, the Net International Investment Position of the US has become more negative.
Deviations Vs. Shortfalls
For the moment, economic activity looks very down regardless of measure. In Q2, it’s 10.5% vs 12% (conventional gap vs shortfall). Even after a forecasted jump in Q3, it’ll still be 6.9% vs. 8.4%.
The Rebound Slows: Business Cycle Indicators, August 28th
While real disposable income is above pre-Covid-19 levels, it is declining. Consumption on the other hand has slowed its ascent, and is some 5% below NBER-defined peak levels.
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