Menzie Chinn Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

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Equity Wealth And Consumption
Equities net worth is only about 18% of total net worth in 2019Q4.
Forecasts And Output Gaps In The Wake Of Covid-19 (As Of Early March)
No major economics agency or group has forecasted a recession in their baseline. However, forecasts are definitely being marked down.
When Ideologues Talk Macro
I’m pretty sure that many investment bank analysts are now predicting in at least one scenario one quarter of negative growth, so if not now, when? This argument takes on reinforced strength given the limitations on monetary policy.
High Frequency Economic Indicators For China
Goldman Sachs now forecasts (nowcasts) -6% q/q AR growth in Q1, down from -0.5%.
Forward Looking Components Of Economic Activity
Nonresidential fixed investment has been declining for three quarters, while equipment has been declining for two quarters.
Trend Deviation In Freight Transportation
Freight movement as measured by the BTS Freight Transportation Services Index is down, relative to trend.
Recession Probability For Term Spread Thru 2/24
If the last few days of February is like the rest, then recession probabilities are up. Using a plain-vanilla probit model of recession based on the 10yr-3mo spread.
10yr-3mo Treasury Spread And TIPS 10yr
It could be argued that the 10yr-3mo spread is reduced due to a compression of the term premium, as deflation becomes a larger concern.
Explaining The Administration’s Economic Forecast
The Economic Report of the President, 2020 is out as of today. Chapter 9 presents the underpinnings for the seemingly implausible GDP forecast presented in the Budget last week.
Pre-Benchmarking Manufacturing Employment In MI, PA, And WI
The pre-benchmarked establishment survey suggests declining employment in key industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Global Spillovers Of A China Hard Landing
A recent Fed paper analyzes the potential spillovers of acute financial stress in China, accompanied by a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, to the rest of the world.
Air Freight, Global Supply Chains And Sensitivity To China
We share some pictures to envision the impact of covid-19: on US international trade by air and US sensitivity to disruption to air freight from China, by sector.
How Plausible Is The Administration’s GDP Forecast?
The Administration’s forecast is about a percentage point higher than CBO’s. This seems like a large economic difference.
Iron And Steel Primary Production Employment
If iron and steel primary employment looks anything like primary metal production overall employment (and it does – Rsquared = 0,81), December employment will be yet again lower.
Why I Still Think June 2019 Employment Is Lower Than Reported
The data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) suggests to me that employment in June 2019 (last available QCEW data) is 505 thousand lower than estimated.
What Method Implies 80% Probability Of Recession By Nov 2020?
Here is a new index of the business cycle that uses the Mahalanobis distance to measure the statistical similarity of current economic conditions to past episodes of recession and robust growth.
1 to 16 of 568 Posts
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