Menzie Chinn Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more


Latest Posts
1 to 16 of 1050 Posts
1 2 3 ... 66
One Year Ahead Expected Inflation
Firm expectations nudge up, but household/consumer expectations are down.
So You Think We’re In A Recession As Of Beginning August
The rise in initial claims seems to be a product of seasonal adjustment issues (the “shadow” from the 2020 recession) and misreporting in a couple of states. I
July Inflation Undershoots Expectations
The realized values of inflation — both core and headline — were below the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasts.
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations For July (And Forward 2-3 Year) Drop
The NY Fed measure of inflation expectations dropped dramatically from 6.8% in June to 6.2% in July. This is a much larger drop than the Michigan series (0.1ppt).
Inflation Expectations Vs. Fed Inflation Target: Now Not That Far Off (If It Ever Was)
The Fed’s inflation target is 2% on PCE inflation. CPI inflation has averaged 0.5 ppts above PCE inflation since 1967. Putting these two points together, we see that expected inflation over the next five years is pretty close to target
NFP Growth Of Over 500K In Historical Perspective
I said 500K was an unlikely number for a recovery month, and I stand by that.
Inflation Breakeven And Term Spreads Adjusted For Premia
The standard 10yr-3mo spread does not necessarily equal the difference between 3 month yields over the next 10 years vs the current 3 month yield.
So You Think We’re In A Recession As Of Mid-July?
The 528K increase in NFP far exceeded the consensus of 250K. In addition, the civilian employment series based on the household series also increased, 179K.
CBO Assessment On A Current Recessionary Environment
The U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, but whether the economy is currently in a recession is difficult to say.
Heavy Truck Sales And Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth As Coincident Indicators
The McFadden R2 from the heavy truck regression is 28%, vs. 7% for vehicle miles traveled (VMT).
Spreads Diverge As Inflation Breakeven Drops
The 10yr-3mo spread rose, while medium-term inflation expectations eased. Five-year real rates are back into the positive region.
Additional Perspective On The GDP Release
Gross Domestic Output and GDP follow different trajectories. Economic activity appears to be geographically broadly based. All in all, reading beyond the headlines, economic activity seemed to continue to increase through Q2.
Business Cycle Indicators As Of July 27
Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Nowcasts And Forecasts Of 2022Q2 GDP Growth
These pertain to advance release numbers coming out tomorrow, recalling that they will be revised two times before end-September, as new data comes in.
The China Outlook From The WEO
In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers.
IMF Downgrades Growth Outlook
Risks are heavily weighted to the downside, in the newest WEO, released today.
1 to 16 of 1050 Posts
1 2 3 ... 66