James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 158
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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U.S. Recession Still Looks Low Through June 2015
There’s renewed talk of a looming U.S. recession these days. One argument that’s topical is the view that we’re overdue for a downturn.
Health Care Holds The Lead As U.S. ETF Sector Momentum Cools
The bullish glow for U.S. stocks has faded lately, but one thing that hasn’t changed is the strong relative performance of the health care sector.
Managing Rate Hike Expectations Down… Again
The IMF this week recommended that the Fed delay its first hike in interest rates until we see “clear signs of wage and price inflation, and sufficiently strong economic growth.”
Risk Premia Forecasts - July 7, 2015
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) inched dipped in June, falling to its lowest level since January.
U.S. Private Payrolls Rise 223,000 In June
Private-sector payrolls rose 223,000 in June, a touch less than expected.
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: June 2015 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 211,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s update for June from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates.
Major Asset Classes | June 2015 | Performance Review
The markets staggered to the year’s midpoint with a thud, with most of the major asset classes suffering losses in June. The exception: broadly defined commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index), which posted a modest 1.7% gain last month.
ISM Manufacturing Index: June 2015 Preview
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to tick fractionally lower to 52.7 in tomorrow’s update for June vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates.
ADP Employment Report: June 2015 Preview
Private non-farm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 200,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s June update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates.
Will The Turmoil In Greece Delay The First U.S. Rate Hike?
The escalating Greek crisis has raised new questions about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s plans for the first US rate hike since 2006.
Backtesting With Synthetic And Resampled Market Histories
We’re all backtesters in some degree, but not all backtested strategies are created equal. One of the more common (and dangerous) mistakes is backtesting a strategy based on the historical record.
Macro Markets Risk Index: U.S. Trend Slows But Still Positive
The US economic trend remains modestly positive as the second quarter comes to a close, based on a markets-based estimate of macro conditions.
Estimating Crash-Risk Potential For The U.S. Stock Market
History shows rather clearly that the stock market is prone to extreme events, aka crashes. The challenge is deciding when the risk for a repeat performance is unusually high.
Treasury Market Is Still Pricing In A Rate Hike
The economic news remains mixed for the US, but the Treasury market continues to anticipate that the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike since 2006 is near.
Chicago Fed: U.S. Economic Growth Picks Up A Bit In May
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) posted a fractional increase in May. Although growth remains below trend, the business cycle benchmark’s three-month average ticked higher for the second month in a row.
Q2:2015 US GDP Estimate: +1.7% - June 23, 2015
US economic growth is projected to post a moderate rebound in the second quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s average estimate for several econometric-based forecasts.
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