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Global Economic Intersection (Econintersect) focuses on the economic effects on finance, investing, social interactions, and politics / public policy.  It features original economic commentary, debate, and economic analysis of economic indicators.  It features original ... more

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Mexico's Output Growth Slows In The Fourth Quarter
Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.1 percent in 2018 (fourth quarter/fourth quarter).
January 2019 Small Business Optimism Returning To Normal Levels As Owners Express Uncertainty About The Future
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped 3.2 points in January, as owners continued hiring and investing, but expressed rising concern about future economic growth.
January 2019 Consumer Expectations: Consumer Optimism Ebbs Although Inflation Expectations Hold Steady
The January 2019 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that while short- and medium-term inflation expectations were unchanged households were generally less optimistic about the economy and about future changes in their financial situation.
January 2019 Job Cuts Up 21%
Employers at U.S.-based companies announced plans to cut 52,988 jobs from their payrolls in January, 20.7 percent higher than the 43,884 announced in December.
Return Of The Bond Vigilante
Bond market vigilantes are a vanishing species. The label refers to bond traders who are averse to fiscal profligacy but also captures politicians who are wedded to small government.
Mortgage Rates Are Expected To Rise Further This Year To Their Highest Level In A Decade
Mortgage rates are expected to rise further this year to their highest level in a decade, affecting home buyer’s monthly payments and lessening the dollar increase in home-purchase lending.
Government Shutdown Impact - New Layoff Announcements
An estimated 800,000 Federal workers missed their first paychecks last week. That could mean the economy lost a pre-tax $4.3B last month, and each month that workers are unpaid.
Home Price Gains Continued To Slow
National home prices increased 5.1 percent year over year in November 2018 and are forecast to increase 4.8 percent from November 2018 to November 2019.
November 2018 Consumer Expectations: Inflation Outlook Is Steady Despite Falling Home Price Growth Expectations
Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher increased for the third consecutive month, while expectations about income and spending growth remained stable.
What's Behind The U.S. Trade Deficit?
Running a trade deficit is not new for the U.S. It’s been mostly running trade deficits since the 1970s.
December 2018 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Total Receipts Up By 1% And Spending Up 9% In The First Quarter Of Fiscal Year 2019
The federal budget deficit was $317 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates, $92 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.
December 2018 Small Business Optimism: Unchanged But Remains Historically High
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remained basically unchanged in December, drifting down 0.4 points to 104.4.
Non-Neutrality Of Money: Minsky, 1992
I have read an article from Hyman Minsky which is only 6 pages long but contains some major arguments of his thought.
Can An Inverted Yield Curve Cause A Recession?
An inverted yield curve - or a situation in which market yields on shorter-term U.S. Treasury securities exceed those on longer-term securities - has been a remarkably consistent predictor of economic recessions.
How Low Can The Market Go?
From its low in February 2016 at 1810 to the September 2018 high of 2940, the S&P 500 rallied 1130 points. A 50% retracement would target 2375 which was exceeded on December 24.
Mexico's Spike In Crime Hurts The Economy
The human and economic costs of crime in Mexico have risen to historic highs.
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