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Global Economic Intersection (Econintersect) focuses on the economic effects on finance, investing, social interactions, and politics / public policy.  It features original economic commentary, debate, and economic analysis of economic indicators.  It features original ... more

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Wringing The Overoptimism From FOMC Growth Forecasts
Growth forecasts by Federal Open Market Committee meeting participants were persistently too optimistic for 2008 through 2016. In contrast, forecasts for 2017 through 2019 started low but were revised up over time.
Technological Change And The U.S.'s Trade Surplus In Services
Along with the global expansion of trade of the last 50 years, the U.S. has exhibited a large deficit in the balance in the international trade of goods.
4Q2019 Report On Household Debt And Credit: Household Debt Continues To Rise; Mortgage Originations Hit 14-Year High
Total household debt balances grew by $193 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a $601 billion increase in household debt balances in 2019, the largest annual gain since 2007.
January 2020 Consumer Expectations: Inflation Expectations Hold Steady As Year Opens
Consumers remain optimistic about labor market outcomes with year-ahead earnings growth, job finding, and job loss expectations all improving. The average expectation of an increase in U.S. stock prices continued on its upward trend.
Countries In The IMF Financial Spotlight In 2020
In 2020, the IMF plans to assess the stability of twelve financial systems.
Outlook For Latin America And The Caribbean: New Challenges To Growth
Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean stagnated in 2019, continuing with the weak growth momentum of the previous five years and adding more urgency and new challenges to reignite growth.
How Banks Create Money And Why Governments Should Too: Part 5
There are all kinds of competing opinions and theories about what money "is" and where money "comes from".
January 2020 Chemical Activity Barometer Little Changed And Continues In Contraction
The Chemical Activity Barometer jumped 0.6 percent in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.1 percent gain in December. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 1.4 percent.
December 2019 Small Business Optimism Dips
Small business optimism ended the year historically strong, with a reading of 102.7, down two points from November.
Eight Centuries Of Global Real Interest Rates
There is a new paper out from the Bank of England which reconstructs global real interest rates on an annual basis going back to the 14th century, covering 78% of advanced economy GDP over time. Here are the key findings...
How Banks Create Money And Why Governments Should Too: Part 4
Commercial banks do not lend out money they already have and do not lend out their depositors' account balances.
How Banks Create Money And Why Governments Should Too: Part 3
Governments today could - but don't - issue their own debt-free, interest-free money. Instead, they issue interest-bearing repayable bond debts to borrow money that is created by commercial banks.
Are Millennials A Lost Generation Financially?
Millennials are the largest adult generation in the U.S. and make up the largest share (38%) of the workforce.
Lower-Priced Homes Appreciating Faster Than Higher-Priced Homes, But The Gap Narrowed
U.S. single-family rents increased 3.1% year over year in October 2019.
2019 In Review: The Global Economy Explained In 5 Charts
Global growth this year recorded its weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, reflecting common influences across countries and country-specific factors.
December 2019 Chemical Activity Barometer Little Changed And Continues In Contraction
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB)was stable (0.0 percent change) in December on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.1 percent gain in November.
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