While the new normal/globalization hollowed out the heartland, the alternative to free trade could hollow out the tech regions. Trump has to decide if he wants a strong dollar, so tariffs won't hurt imports that much, while providing revenue to the government, or a weak dollar so exports will be desirable. He cannot have both although I am sure he wants both a strong and weak dollar. Enough to make an unstable POTUS go crazy.

Nice try Carlos, but Trump used the words, "ban Muslims". You can think what you want but Trump has already said what he thinks. It is picking religions no matter if you put lipstick on the pig or not. Trump is a demagogue. You and Breaking Bad are fearmongers. You remind me of the Bush admin scaring us with Iraq exporting nukes. They didn't even have nukes to export. Quit scaring people. Don't be paranoid like the POTUS.

Actually Carlos, that is incorrect. The problem #Trump faces is that he banned Muslims from these nations but not other religions. He made it a religious test. Had he said he was going to equally vet or equally ban all people from these nations, he would not be having the problems he is having. Banning Muslims as a religion but not other religions is fusion of church and state and is unconstitutional.

I think you nailed it with your comment, Moon. They wanted #NIRP, it may not happen, so now they want a higher interest rate. Dimon has said as much. But not a raging interest rate, he wants just a modest increase.

My concern is that if this stock market crash does happen, #Trump will look around for a way out. #Bannon's way out is war, in the Middle East and against China, maybe both at the same time. Demagogues always look at war as a means of expanding the money supply. If Trump takes that advice it could mean trouble.

If the United States POTUS starts a war with Iran, a nation that has not declared a war on others for over 200 years, he probably will have to come up with a false flag to avoid the war crime label. I wonder if it is already in the works or if Trump is just trying to talk Iran into more compliance. As far as defense stocks being the stocks of choice, that could be because Bannon wants war, actually two wars, not so sure about Trump yet.

You make an interesting but cryptic final statement: "Five or ten years from now, a possible market share ‘oil war’ would take place on a totally different battleground, and some regiments or battalions may lack essential armory to wage such war." Does this imply a #Bannon type physical war for total control of #oil in the Middle East?

Nice article. Money trickles up: www.talkmarkets.com/.../will-rogers-knew-trickle-up-wont-increase-money-velocity We need more growth, but not runaway growth. I don't believe the financial system can handle runaway growth.

Thanks for another brilliant article, Chris.

If rates move too high, the bonds used as collateral will have to be augmented by more bonds! Without banning bonds as collateral, the new normal will throw Trump to the mat. A credit crisis will result, and it could be the biggest one of all time. Capital formation could be impacted. Big Banks and counterparties will fail or be bailed out. Jobs will be lost in the hundreds of thousands and maybe more.