Gary Anderson - Comments
Muckraker of the Financial System
The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other ...more
Latest Comments
The Bank Of Canada Holds Out For A ‘Neutral’ Rate Of Interest
7 years ago

You made my day, prof. Trudeau seemed to indicate that he would explore a deal with China. But it makes little sense economically. It does make sense if Canada should feel it must assert sovereignty. I am dumbfounded that there was resistance to a pipeline allowing Canada to diversify.

What Is Wrong With The European Banks?
7 years ago

Anarchy! Trump blames the media for attacks on the media. Europe is in bad shape. Euro hurting. Maybe a dead cat bounce in stocks. Maybe. S and P gets 50 percent profit overseas. Strong dollar makes goods more expensive. Dollar is important. DB weak. Counterparty risk to all big banks! Really bad! Signal. Bailout coming? If not, banks go lower.

Then There Is That Demand Thing
7 years ago

Interesting that overall capacity utilization is under 80 percent in the US but refinery utilization is right at 90 percent.

Posen And Cramer On Trade Wars And Cold Wars
7 years ago

I am not sure who you are asking, Stock Picks. But I would say that Trump has a pattern. If you follow the statements, over time, a clear pattern emerges. He is, after these bombing letters were sent, telling the media to back off him. He is the likely motivation for the bombs being sent in the first place. He needs to back off. One went to the former head of the CIA. Trump really is out there, and so many people seem to be unable to see this obvious truth.

In this article: AAPL, MU, COL
Posen And Cramer On Trade Wars And Cold Wars
7 years ago

I reported on policy. That breaking New Normal policy is still in place. Asia is the biggest market for business in the world. China is nowhere near as interventionist as the USA is. We are all over the world, troops everywhere. So, Asia has 4.5 billion customers. We are penny wise and pound foolish if we pursue a trade war against China, India, etc. Your idea of adversaries and a cavalier attitude is Trump-like. But it is wrong, and makes no sense for world prosperity. You think it is a game. Trump thinks it is a reality show. All I can say is get real, Carol.

In this article: AAPL, MU, COL
Why Are Stocks Going Down?
7 years ago

I know there are multiple reasons. But Jim Cramer said that Wall Street does not want a cold war with China and Trump does. That means the patience of Wall Street regarding the Orange POTUS is OVER!

In this article: SPX
The Bank Of Canada Holds Out For A ‘Neutral’ Rate Of Interest
7 years ago

It will be interested when the US economy slows, and Canada wants to make a free trade agreement with China under USMCA. The sparks could fly, prof. I hope you would read my last article, and chime in if you dare. It is a fiery crowd.

Posen And Cramer On Trade Wars And Cold Wars
7 years ago

Carol, I have been thinking of a response to you for awhile now. I didn't want to just react. I have written a lot on Talkmarkets about the New Normal. The New Normal has serious flaws. For one, the economy cannot become red hot. Bonds are the new gold, meaning that yields cannot explode or much of the economy would likely be in peril. Those bonds are used as collateral for derivatives. It would be nice to find a more benign substitute for the long bonds as collateral.

However, it is clear that Trump and his economic advisers want to take out the new normal. They have declared that is a stated goal. www.talkmarkets.com/.../trumponomics-increase-exports-slow-imports-bludgeon-the-new-normal

Now, consider, Carol, the way to break the New Normal is to export more, import less, let the economy grow white hot. Interesting that he doesn't want immigrants because we are running out of workers, but that is for another discussion. And what happens if the New Normal is broken? The goal is for rates on bonds to soar as people flood to the stock market and leave bonds, like in the old days. But it isn't the old days anymore, Carol.

If you take breaking the New Normal, bonds soaring on yields (which may not happen if people are suddenly afraid of stocks), and cutting imports from China, who will buy our bonds? Trump really doesn't care and taken to its farthest extension, he would not want to pay our bondholders (creditors), and may be perfectly fine with ruining the credit of the United States. He has stated this goal in so many words: www.talkmarkets.com/.../trumps-punishment-of-china-the-start-of-a-radical-rejection-of-foreign-capital

This experiment, Carol, is off the charts in terms of risk. He has no idea of the outcome and it can't be good. It would, in my opinion, put our nation on a war footing, although it will be with a trade war anyway. And this new economy could be fraught with danger. People don't take the time to see the whole picture of Trump's goals, of Wilbur Ross' goals. Maybe this last goal of paying creditors like China less money is just a dream. But, you have to take Trump seriously. He doesn't forget. He operates with abandon, he has a chip on his shoulder, and he wants the US to dominate the entire world. He wants to instill fear through the entire world.

This is a radical and dangerous regime, potentially, with a few extras for the base, who can't probably grasp most of this anyway. But they do grasp the America First, and the hatred of all things foreign. And that keeps them in Trump's camp as he attempts to lead the United States down the path of destruction. Again, I am waiting for Donald Trump to prove this all wrong. But the problem is he and his team keep proving that it is likely the correct analysis of his radical regime.

In this article: AAPL, MU, COL
More Than 3/4 Of S&P 500 Stocks Already In Correction Mode
7 years ago

They did, Justin, until Jim Cramer said that Wall Street doesn't want a cold war with China but it appears that Trump wants that cold war: www.talkmarkets.com/.../posen-and-cramer-on-trade-wars-and-cold-wars

In this article: SPX
Posen And Cramer On Trade Wars And Cold Wars
7 years ago

It cannot be proved that Trump was referring to Nazi behavior, but it was not the first time he has done this. Last time it was a forward raise of the hand and it was explained away. But it looked just like a Nazi salute. If it jumps like a frog, it could be a frog.

I said students of history would be concerned about Trump getting his base to raise their hands. They could get used to doing it!

In this article: AAPL, MU, COL
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