The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other ...
more The Fed knew about the housing bubble before it burst but lied and said they didn't: Bill HR 1424 to buy bad paper (eventually called TARP) was introduced in March 9, 2007, before there began to be bad commercial paper from private subprime RE loans, in August. I have published on two other prominent financial websites, Seekingalpha.com (as Gary A) and at Businessinsider.com. I muckrake the banking system and found premeditated causes for the housing bubble and subsequent meltdown. I am married with 4 grown children.
Specialties: Impacts of politics on the economy, interpreting economists, writing about the negative impact of some aspects of globalization and pros and cons of the new normal. I don't like tariff wars. Email bgamall at gmail
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Embrace The Fear - Russell 2000 And S&P In 'Strong Buy' Territory
Donald Trump is threatening to close the border and all economic activity with Mexico. This could have a devastating effect on small business in America. Just FYI, Declan. I posted this with the NY Mag article link:
Let's not kid ourselves. Donald Trump hates Mexico. He wants revenge over those he hates. Read this and you will never doubt this truth again: nymag.com/.../...overnment-shutdown-recession.html
Trump Revenge And The Prediction Of A Soft Landing
Update 2: Trump has threatened to throw the United States into an economic decline, as I have warned about. He has threatened to close the US/Mexican border over the wall. His dispute with Congress, with which he doesn't have the votes, is not a dispute with Mexico. But he hates Mexico and wants to destroy trade with that nation. This will damage both US companies and consumers. He made a deal, but I have warned that Trump's desire for revenge may be closer to his heart, his dark heart, than any deal he has made.
Some Thoughts On What Is Happening
So, basically, Powell said economic growth slowed but is on track to increase. What does Wall Street know that Powell doesn't know?
Yields Falling; Who Could Be Buying Without QEs?
Seems to me that protecting the collateral is still more important than growth. I think the Fed has to talk up growth, but really in its heart of hearts does not want out of control economic growth: www.talkmarkets.com/.../economists-reveal-massive-market-forces-in-bonds-before-and-after-qe
The Depression Of 2019-2021?
Interesting article. The idea of a credit crisis in China could be overblown however, as the Chinese will not mark to market bad lending.
No, Mr. President, There Isn’t A Santa Claus
I don't think Wall Street thinks tariff wars, full blown tariff wars, can be won. Certainly, Wall Street gives Trump the benefit of the doubt, that he is negotiating. But this is really how business in the US feels about the potential tariff war, and certainly the steel tariffs are just killing American business slowly by 1000 cuts: https://www.uschamber.com/tariffs
No, Mr. President, There Isn’t A Santa Claus
The trend growth is likely below 3 percent. Most rational people do not hope Trump wins in 2020. He is doing great damage to our nation on many fronts, including economic policy. He is a dreadful human being on many fronts. The author does not share my views, which is fine. But it is a tough read.
VIX Broke Above The Head & Shoulders Neckline
Interesting read. Certainly, finding the reason stocks are behaving as they are would allow us to not be so comfortably (or perhaps uncomfortably) numb as we heard many years ago from Pink Floyd:
What seems to be the trouble
Are we feeling out of sorts
Do you think they're gone forever
Can you show me where it hurts
I think I know what's wrong
A lot people get this way
Take two of these four times a day
I'll drop in when I pass this way again
There is no pain, you are receding
A distant ship smoke on the horizon
You are only coming through in waves
Your lips move but I can't hear what you're saying
When I was a child I had a fever
My hands felt just like two balloons
Now I've got that feeling once again
I can't explain, you would not understand
This is not how I am
I have become comfortably numb.
genius.com/Pink-floyd-comfortably-numb-lyrics
Transition Into Economic Night
Money is being directed to the wrong people. Labor is left out. The tax breaks may have allowed more discounts at the stores but that cannot be the long term solution.
Mastercard Says U.S. Holiday Season Retail Sales Up 5.1% From Last Year
But tech was down, a very bad sign.