Edward Harrison Blog | Market shift to bear steepening as important as regime shift under Powell | Talkmarkets
General Partner, Global Macro Advisors
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial ... more

Market shift to bear steepening as important as regime shift under Powell

Date: Sunday, October 7, 2018 10:31 PM EDT

Back in late February, I told you there was a new hawkish tone coming from the Fed that I believed meant an acceleration of the Fed's rate hike timetable. When Lael Branard got onboard, I knew a regime shift was at hand.

This has proved to be the right assessment as far as 2018 goes, with the Fed now signalling four rate hikes, up from three at the beginning of the year, and well above the less than two hikes implied by the market.
Behind the curve
But now we are almost near the end of 2018 and it's time to look forward. As we do so, another regime shift seems to be at hand and that's from the market's belief that a Fed tightening cycle will crush the economy to one in which the Fed is seen as 'behind the curve'.

Now, I use the word 'seems' because we are only talking about 10 to 15 basi...

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