Edward Harrison Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
General Partner, Global Macro Advisors
Contributor's Links: Credit Writedowns

Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial ... more

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Grantham: The Essence Of Every Bubble Is Wonderful Fundamentals, Euphorically Extrapolated
Jeremy Grantham has called a few stock market bubbles — the tech stock bubble of the 1990s and the global credit bubble of the 2000s, to be sure. And he was spot on in timing the 2009 market bottom.
Gallup: Half Of Small-Business Owners Give Trump Administration High Marks
Gallup has done a deeper dive into the data in its latest poll, which I highlighted last night. The numbers show small businesses content with the state of the economy, giving the Trump Administration high marks in this area.
US Small Business Optimism At Decade Highs As We Await GDP Report
Right now the New York Fed Staff Nowcast has Q1 2018 at 3.1%. As with the Q4 reading, the Q1 2018 number will replace a weak number — 1.2% annualized growth in Q1 2017, likely bringing trend growth all the way back to 3%.
Ray Dalio: We Are Already In A Bond Bear Market Right Now
I am not convinced we are going to see a bond bear market, at least one that is long-lasting. And that’s because a bond bear market will necessarily negatively impact credit growth, precipitating a recession.
Gary Shilling Is Betting Against Dalio, Gross And Gundlach
Unlike Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and And Janus Henderson’s Bill Gross, Shilling doesn’t think bond yields have put in a secular low. Bond Guru Jeff Gundlach is also bond bearish
Looking For The Next Amazon In The Technology Industry
Not every company is the next Amazon. A lot of the telecom companies went bust. And even Amazon faced a trial by fire and fears of a liquidity squeeze.
Ray Dalio: First Comes The Boom, Then Comes The Bust
Ray Dalio view is that we are late in the economic cycle and should expect very good things from asset markets. But he also believes central banks will have a tricky time dealing with the consequences.
Jobless Claims Data Show No Disruption Yet; Apple Touts Investment In Jobs
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 220,000 in the week ending January 13 underscore the strength of the US job market. With the 4-week moving average decreasing to 244,500, there is no sign on the horizon of disruption to jobs.
The Tax Cut Benefits For Corporations Are Now More Clear
While banks will take a hit to earnings now due to the need for writedowns to their deferred tax assets resulting from previous losses, over the long-term, the cut in effective tax rates for banks will be one of the largest.
Some Thoughts On This Global Economic Recovery Amidst Longer-Term Economic Uncertainty
As the economy turns up and private debt levels increase again, no mechanisms are being put into place to bolster safeguards against economic and personal hardship when the economy turns down.
Bailout Bank Monte Dei Paschi Sub Deal Three Times Over-Subscribed As Euro Hits 3-Year High
Monte dei Paschi’s debt offering symbolizes the euphoria because it is a subordinated debt deal, meaning investors will not have first-right claims on the bank’s assets if anything goes wrong. Yet this deal was three times oversubscribed.
Some Thoughts On The Walmart Minimum Pay Increase
The Walmart announcement could have a galvanizing effect on wage growth more generally. And that will lift the economy through additional consumer spending.
Bill Gross: The Bond Bear Actually Began 18 Months Ago, After The Brexit Vote
Once the Deutsche Bank bankruptcy crisis ended in September 2016, the direction of yields turned up. A year and a half later, Gross thinks it’s time to call time on the bond bull market.
Proof That Bonds Are Moving More Because Of The Fed Than China
The Fed is telling us its intent is to stick to its projected three rate hikes in 2018. The economic data has been good enough to support the Fed’s policy guidance.
It’s The Booming Economy Driving Bond Prices Down, Not Chinese Selling
If yields were rising because the Chinese were selling or about to sell Treasuries — and that actually affected bond yields — it would be the 2- to 3-year space that was getting savaged.
On China, Japan And The Eurozone’s Determining US Interest Rates
I believe Treasury rates are determined by fundamentals — expected inflation, the predicted path of short-term real rates as dictated by the Fed, and a term premium.
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