Douglas Gammons Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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Retired software engineer turned writer/investor and owner of HeadlineCharts. I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a ... more

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Leading The Market Higher
We've all seen examples where the major indexes advanced but the broader market was weak; the generals leading the troops higher. Though this is a warning sign for the market, the generals can continue to advance and pull the troops higher with them.
Short-Term Pullback Or Medium-Term Pullback?
The question is whether the current downtrend is just another short-term pullback, or if it is the beginning of a larger, medium-term pullback. Even if the market bottoms and rallies over the next few weeks, I believe a larger correction is likely. 
A Different Sort Of Uptrend
The short-term uptrend that started on June 21 continues. The uptrend isn't what we are accustomed to seeing, but it's still an uptrend. What we are used to seeing is all or most stocks move up or down in price together within a broad market trend.
Sectors Out Of Sync
As a result of the sectors being so out of sync, the PMO indicator is unable to move to the high or low of its range where the best market timing signals occur. With that in mind, this most recent uptrend may not produce a strong short-term tailwind.
Medium-Term Downtrend In The Works
The weekly NYSE common-stock-only cumulative advance-decline chart is signaling that it is ready to lower, and this often means there is a medium-term downtrend coming. I would prepare for a selloff similar to the September and October 2020 period.
Time To Prepare For The Next Short-Term Downtrend
The call/put indicator often changes its trend a few days in advance of the market's change of trend. This week, it started to show weakness after a consistent advance. This is a signal that it is time to prepare for the next short-term downtrend.
Market Uptrend Starting To Come Together
The major indexes have been out-of-sync and breakouts were not following through to the upside. However, Friday, June 4 was constructive for many stocks, so perhaps the general market uptrend is starting to come together for all the major indexes.
Overall Market Unable To Rally
The SPX and the NDX are indexes out of sync, and the overall market is unable to rally or sell off. With this kind of choppy, unpredictable behavior, the market could be base-building in order to provide us with the next rally. 
EC Signs Of A Fake-Out Rally?
Last week I said that a new short-term uptrend had started on May 7; that was a bad call. Yet, a week later on May 14, a new short-term uptrend started. In other words, watch for signs that this is another fake-out rally.
EC A New Uptrend Already?
A downtrend is definitely over when the SPX hits a new high in bullish fashion, as it did on Friday.
May Brings A New Short-Term Downtrend
I can't believe it's May already. I think we have a new short-term downtrend as of Friday, although I wouldn't be surprised to see more choppy, sideways market behavior. This has been a really tough market to follow.
The Market Was Ready To Turn, But It Didn't - Or It Hasn't Yet
The short-term uptrend continues. Based on the past week, it looked like the market was ready to turn down, but it never did. Or it hasn't yet.
EC Respect The Risk In The Market
The SPX bullish percent is well into the "raise cash" range. It doesn't mean sell everything, but it does mean that it is time to respect the risk that the market might move lower.
Short-Term Cycle Nearing Top
The short-term trend continues higher although it is weak and listless in most areas of the market ... with the exception of the mega large-cap stocks.
VIX Favors Higher Stock Prices
On Thursday, the market felt like it had gathered quite a bit of strength, but with the huge jobs report Friday morning, who knows what will happen Monday morning.
Be Prepared For Whipsaw Trading
A short-term uptrend started on Friday, March 26. Not all the indicators agree that the trend is higher, and, as a result, we need to be prepared for the possibility of a bad signal.
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