David Moenning Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital Research
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Portfolio management consultant with more than 30 years of investment management experience. Focuses on a risk-managed approach to capital markets via modernized portfolio design and dynamic adaptation to ever-changing macro environments. Founder of Heritage Capital Research, an independent ... more

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The State Of The Markets
A look at what is going on in the stock and bond markets.
GDP Getting Real
In the GDP report, there are actually two rates of growth provided, "real" and "nominal". Meaning, in simple terms, with and without inflation. And the difference between these two numbers really tells the story here.
Keep It Out Of The Ditch
If and when we can get comfortable that the Fed isn't going to wreck the economy as they barrel down the rate hike road, then, and only then, can investors start to look ahead and buy with both hands.
What Will It Take?
Stocks are starting the week on a weak note, basically following the leads from Europe and China. However, it is worth noting that the "action" has been improving of late.
Some Good News To Consider
History suggests that the bottom may be very close at hand. And that from there, stocks will move higher in a stair-step fashion in the second half of the year.
Hope The Seatbelts Work
We've known for a long time now that the rate of economic growth would "slow down". However, there is a massive difference between the rate of growth slowing from an unsustainably high rate and an actual economic slowdown.
What Else Can Go Wrong?
The action in the stock market has been a bit schizophrenic of late. Up one day, down the next, with no follow-through seen in either direction.
Closer To The End Than The Beginning?
It's a very busy time for anyone managing money in the markets. The stock market is in "growth scare" mode, and worries about recession have been surging.
Have Stocks Lost Touch With Reality?
With the S&P 500 having flirted with the bear market zone last week, it is easy to argue that the market is preparing for/pricing in a recession in the USA.
The Changing Narrative
Volatility appears to be the new normal for the calendar year 2022. Lest we forget, the new year began with the S&P 500 moving to a fresh all-time high.
Do We Really Need To W.I.N.?
Now we have the highest inflation in 40 years. And a Fed that appears desperate to retain their credibility as "inflation fighters".
Record Trade Deficit Contracts Economy
The equity market struggled again last week as the S&P 500 saw its fourth consecutive weekly loss. The U.S housing market continues to run hot as single-family home prices and price appreciation have reached new records.
Recalibrating On The Fly
As of last Tuesday, the market had a pretty good feel to it. But then it happened. Jay Powell started talking about declaring war on inflation. To say that the reference to Mr. Volcker's rate hikes spooked the market is an understatement.
Hawkish Comments Cause Selloff
Inflation fears, which were mistakenly considered transitory by the Fed since May 2021, continue to surprise investors unknowingly.
Figuring It Out
Whether inflation, the Fed, Putin's heinous attack on Ukraine, shortages, supply chain issues, earnings, or economic growth, there seems to be no shortage of things for investors to fret about.
Don't Fight The Fed?
Even with the bunch of rate hikes on the table, interest rates will be "higher" but not "high" from a historical perspective. So, while rates may go higher, they may not be high enough to bite.
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