David Moenning Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Officer at Heritage Capital Research
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Portfolio management consultant with more than 30 years of investment management experience. Focuses on a risk-managed approach to capital markets via modernized portfolio design and dynamic adaptation to ever-changing macro environments. Founder of Heritage Capital Research, an independent ... more


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Some Surprisingly Bad Data To Contend With
A healthy part of the bull case for the stock market is that we can reopen the country and that the economy will recover. In order for this to occur, people have to feel safe enough to go to a restaurant, head back to the malls, or get on a plane.
Some Surprisingly Good Data
Never before had we seen the stock market go from an all-time high to a decline of more than 30% in such a short period of time. And never before have investors enjoyed a rebound as fast and as furious as the rally that began on March 24, 2020.
Is There Any Upside From Here?
The current narrative is that Ms. Market is looking ahead. Moving on, if you will, beyond the current economic and earnings debacle, which was self-inflicted, and ahead to what things will look like in 2021.
Five Lessons For Understanding This Market
The first lesson relates to recessions. The rule is that a buy signal occurs when the government officially declares a recession.
Turning The Corner
It appears the general theme of the market these days is we have turned the corner in terms of the virus and the self-inflicted damage done to the economy.
Hope Springs Eternal
After the fastest decline of 30% off the top in stock market history, which presumably represented the "discounting" of the worst hit to the U.S. economy since, well, ever, stocks have since rebounded sharply.
Moderna Monday
This morning the game is about hope. And this time there is some actual data to back up that warm and fuzzy feeling everyone owning stocks has right about now.
Place Your Bets
Traders appear to be focusing on what's going to happen within the next six months when most states will be re-opened for business and the impact of the historic stimulus is being felt.
Assuming Away The Can And...
The message from the bond market is currently wildly divergent from the stock market. While the S&P 500 and the Q's are looking hopeful, the yield on the U.S. 10-Year remains near its panic-induced nadir seen in early March.
The Battle Is On
The current battle, which the bulls appear to be winning from a big-picture perspective, assumes that we've either seen or feel that we know what the worst will look like.
Market Logic Can Be Confusing
Investors received a steady flow of really rotten news on many fronts last week. China's economy shrank by -6.8%. JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said we need to expect a "severe recession" as well as "meaningfully bad" credit card defaults.
What Are We Lookin' At?
The S&P 500 enjoyed its biggest bounce in 46 years last week. Which followed the biggest/fastest drop from an all-time high since, well, ever.
There Is Good News If You Look Hard Enough
While we don't have a good analog to follow for this particular crisis, we can look back at history and determine what the average decline during bear markets looks like.
And We Are Back...
Currently, the credit problem looks to be on the back burner. The Fed put a stop to the immediate crisis by announcing they were going to start buying corporate bond ETFs (LQD) and muni bonds. However, this doesn't really "solve" the problem.
Putting The Rally In Perspective
From my seat, it appears that stocks are experiencing a "sigh of relief" rally (aka a dead cat bounce) here.
More Questions Than Answers
The main reason the market tends to follow the playbook is the various stages (Crash, Dead-Cat Bounce, Retest, Bottoming Phase, New Bull) are based on the emotions of investors.
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