David H. Smith - Comments
Senior Analyst, The Morgan Report; Professional Writer via The Write Doctor. Inc.

David H. Smith is Senior Analyst for The Morgan Report  and a columnist at Money Metals Exchange. Through his business, The Write Doctor, Inc. he is a professional writer for a number of ... more

Latest Comments
There's Something Worse Than Having A "Losing Position"
4 years ago

Kurt Benson,

No one who is honest about the matter can (or should claim to be able to) predict the future. All we can do is take a deeply studied, considered approach, and then act (or not) based upon probabilities. These decisions will be informed by what has happened in the past, by an understanding of human nature - theirs and ours, and by looking at the convergence of certain unique factors which are now in play. Compare the 1980 gold bull market, which was a rather localized affair, with virtually NO participation by India and China. Now we have synchronized stock bear markets around the globe, massive debt at all levels, trillions in derivatives, generational sea changes socio-politically, etc. Last year China bought virtually all of the 2015 global production of gold; India bot 40% of the silver. The shift from physical holdings is moving massively from West to East. Ultimately, price discovery - based upon physical metals rather than paper substitutes, will be moving in that direction as well.

Of course I could be wrong. But I set out my plan, thought and researched deeply about it, and am now implementing it. The plan offers insurance first; (the possibility of) profit second. The best to you in whatever you decide, Kurt.

In this article: GLD, SLV
There's Something Worse Than Having A "Losing Position"
4 years ago

Currency Trader,

I could list a couple of dozen fundamental and technical reasons - most of which you already probably know about - for this belief. Above all else, I follow the dictum that all bull markets go through three stages, the last one being a public-mania fueled blow-off top. In my considered opinion 2011 was the end of stage 2, and that is why I lightened up in May 2011, but did not close out all of my positions. I did not (nor did anyone else who will be honest about it) expect the cyclical bear to last so long or go so deep), but as I bought/sold on the way down, never losing my belief that the third and biggest up move was still in play, as the secular bull remained alive. As we move into this last big rise over the next few years, I will be selling most of my positions in the miners and resource sector plays - into all-time highs as the public-fueled buying (on a global basis) takes the best miners into moon shots. --Please note that I am not giving financial advice here, rather I am informing your opinion so that you can choose (or not) to lead it yourself. I wish you the very best in this endeavor.

In this article: GLD, SLV
1 to 2 of 2 comments