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Portfolio Manager, attorney, finance author, a regular guest on North American media. Danielle Park is the author of the best selling myth-busting book “Juggling Dynamite: An insider’s wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts,” as well as a popular daily ... more

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Rapid Rate Change Just Starting To Be Felt
A key point regularly missed is that monetary policy moves at a multi-quarter lag through the economy.
Recessions: Best Prepared For Than Ignored
Recessions are a regular resetting part of economic cycles measured as a multi-quarter decline in five key indicators: real gross domestic product, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales.
Tracking Grizzly Bears
Today (so far), stocks and bonds are rebounding on relief that US CPI in July eased to 8.5% (consensus forecast was 8.7%), suggesting that the US Fed may hike less than 75 bps in September.
Contagion Between Public And Private Markets
The average sale price for a Toronto home in July was $1.02 million (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board), down $133,075 (11.5%) from June 2022 and +0.2 percent or $2,520 compared to July 2021.
Bear Market Update
The widely-benchmarked S&P 500 was +10% from June and -13% from its January 3rd peak.
Bears Are A Series Of Ladders And Snakes
The tech-heavy Nasdaq has led the way lower since January in its own succession of ladders and snakes within an ongoing bear market.
Easy Money Has Cost A Ton
For three decades, the theory was that ultra-low interest rates allow borrowers to save on interest costs. In reality, low rates prompt most to borrow more and go deeper into debt.
Bottoming Is A Process
Past market bottoms coincided with a halving from the cycle peak in margin levels and stock prices. So far, both are only off about 20%.
What Happens In China, Doesn’t Stay In China
Canada saw a record influx of capital from Chinese property buyers over the last decade. As commodity demand slumps with property prices, what happens in China, won’t stay in China.
Average Canadian Home Sale Price Down 18 Percent Since February
Canada’s housing market continued to weaken for the third month in June, with an average selling price of $665,850, down 18.5% from a record $816,720 in February 2022.
Rate Hikes Compounding Pain For Bloated Real Estate
The Canadian prime lending rate now jumps to 4.7%, and most home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) to 5.2%, while conventional variable rate mortgages are in the 3.85 to 4.2% range.
Relative Safety And Liquidity Top Priority In 2022
The recovery from recession this cycle may be slower than most can imagine.
Secular Bears End When Animal Spirits Are Crushed
Secular bear markets begin from a point of mass exuberance and over-valuation and end when they have crushed both into remission.
Recessions Squash Inflation And Risk Assets
Amid the highest inflation readings in decades and talk of central bank tightening through 2023, it’s worth noting that Treasury inflation-protected securities have fallen 12% since last summer.
Retail Capitulation Yet To Come
Stocks and stock funds made up a whopping 70% of retail holdings at the end of May, and while the average portfolio loss is down more than 30% year to date, net retail flows have not yet turned negative.
Big Bounces Par For Bear Market Course
Risk assets remain far from historically cheap even with the recent declines, and the consensus is still expecting economic expansion and S&P companies to report double-digit earnings growth through 2022.
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