CDC website. www.cdc.gov/.../...iminary-in-season-estimates.htm

JAMES, thank you for the perspective. I concur. Regarding the coronavirus, the media is both a blessing and a curse. On the plus side it’s getting people to take protective action. On the minus side, because bad news sells it is scaring the hell out of people.

In the last pandemic, the Spanish influenza, we did not have the kind of communications available today. I think about a third of the US population caught that influenza and 2%+ died. As it pertains to that particular influenza, as the virus began to wind down in 1919, The Dow Jones industrial average hit a new high of 118.

Thanks for checking in.

bk

Thanks for your comment Kevin. I just responded to your concern in my response to Ayelet Wolf above. I would say unlike China, our population is well aware that the disease has come to our shores. Mini are taking significant steps to lessen their chances of getting the disease. Health professionals are very vigilant for new people presenting with symptoms and, in the final analysis, we are dealing with a crisis of confidence in the administration’s ability to Deal with this problem. Then of course you have to look at the OPEC price war and its affect on energy stocks. For as long as it lasts, it will be a significant stimulus because it will put money in the pockets of consumers that have been shipping it elsewhere. Also, they use the rate on the 10 year government to establish mortgage rates. This should help a lot of people refinancing. As Mr. Roosevelt said, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Thanks for stopping by.

bk

Thank you for the comment Ayelet. China had the same problem. At one point, anyone who presented with the symptoms were labeled as having coronavirus in the count. I do agree that we could have significantly greater exposure and much bigger numbers coming. Having said that it will not be the end of the world. And even though we haven’t prepared by manufacturing and distributing tons of testing. We did have a lot of warning that the disease was coming our way and the simple vigilance that has caused should keep the numbers down.

Unfortunately what’s causing the problem is a crisis of confidence in the administration‘s ability to handle this issue and media that is creating a lot of fear in it’s reporting. My sense is that the disease itself will not be The end of the secular bull market. It certainly could precipitate a cyclical bear market, recession. But it’s not gonna be the financial crisis.

Bk

Thanks for your comment and readership. The scientists may be right this time. But like many of us they ar speculating, extrapolating etc, We had a big drop today (a panic) on new cases in Italy, Iran and Korea while the rate of new cases seems to be slowing in China. I am speculating that the sellers today, human and computer, probably have it wrong.

BB, Here is an article that I got off CNBC regarding comments of a former FDA official. His comment is that may be thousands of less severe un reported cases that have cleared by themselves.

www.cnbc.com/.../...imating-coronavirus-cases.html

BB, they could be. I have no way of verifying. The global spread of only 70 confirmed cases in 17 places outside of China would seem to belie this.

Thank you Alpha. Thanks for your readership.

Alpha, thanks for the encouragement and, yes, I will fight. Thank you for your readership. bk

Thanks for your readership Carl. I think Miller and Fearand Greed trader are two of the best out there for content and a well reasoned market opinion.