Investor/Blogger/Speaker on The Media & The Market
Contributor's Links: Kort Sessions

I have been investing in stocks for over 53 years.   I began my career in the brokerage business as a retail stockbroker in 1970 with a Kansas City based regional firm H.O. Peet & Co. Inc.  Peet was acquired in 1978 by Kidder, Peabody.  This marked a turning point in my career ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Beware The June Jobs Report
Why? Because the ADP private payrolls report, issued Wednesday, July, 3 missed analysts’ expectations, coming in at a meager 102,000 new private sector jobs being created in June.
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"The President Is The Yankees And Powell Is The Toledo Mud Hens.”
Jim Cramer recently opined that the stock market ‘would probably go up’ if Trump were to remove Powell as Fed chief and replace him with a "newbie" who would do the President's bidding. How this would cause a market rally is beyond me.
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Flight To Safety: “All That Glitters Is Not Gold!”
For those worried about the most recent yield inversion as a signal of bad things to come I would suggest it is much more about fear and an emotional flight to safety.
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Barron's: The Trade War Will Make Stocks Scary. 5 Reasons Not To Panic
This week’s cover story in Barron’s Magazine (“The Trade War … 5 reasons Not To Panic.”) is exemplary of the good that the media can do by giving the public a thoughtful examination of the facts and perspective. It deserves your consideration.
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'The Only Reason To Keep The Stock Market Open Is To See How Foolish People Can Be'
Buffett believes that when you buy something you should be willing to hold it even if the market were to be closed for the next ten years. Day-to-day fluctuations should not be considered in the evaluation of long-term fundamentals.
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File This One Under, “You Have To Be Kidding Me!”
There is no justification for claiming the economy needs lower rates given the trillions of dollars worth of (extremely stimulative) national debt we’ve piled on.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Ugly, But True. And, As Usual, Late To The Party
4 months ago

Thanks for your readership Carl. I think Miller and Fearand Greed trader are two of the best out there for content and a well reasoned market opinion.

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Thanks Boaz. I’m all set now, getting both notifications of new followers and comments. I appreciate your help.

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Thanks Zev. I appreciate your readership. A more interesting idea, if you’re looking for diversification and income would be A closed and fund, the Tortiose Midstream Enrgy Fund (NTG). This is a diversified portfolio of master limited partnerships. Their largest holding is energy transfer and they are diversified. You don’t have to worry about a K-1 with this fund and it is yielding over 12%. This is an industry that has been through the ringer and rightfully so.But, it’s come out the other side with much better fundamentals and a retail shareholder base but totally abandoned it Christmas Eve 2018.

Thanks for checking in.

bk

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Alpha S., Thank you for your readership and your question. I try to keep kortsessions apolital because using political leanings and convictions to set an investment course is usually a bad idea. For example there were a lot of people after the 2008 election of Barack Obama who were basically saying that he had no clue as to how to address the economy and that we were heading for disaster. This was especially the chant on the right. Of course, they were wrong. The S &P 500 triple during the Obama administration. Likewise there were those who felt the Trump administration would be a disaster ( including yours truly). Fortunately, he did not take me too long to figure out the tax cuts and on bridled free-market economics where the focus of the market, i.e. Profits. The market was not focused on the presidents bona fides and character. It was all about making money.

On a short-term basis however the market does care about certain things the president says and does especially as it involves trade and the federal reserve. Ergo, these comments become fodder for this blog.

As to your question, my answer is may be no. My sense is that the current shut down is really putting the Republican Party in a very bad place. There is an answer to their problems, should they choose to take it, and that is to override the president’s Veto of the continuing resolution. In the meantime, as long as the Senate will not confront the president, it’s business as usual. Also, a lot of that which emanates from the White House pure bluster. The market’sReaction to the current shut down would seem to indicate that it is no longer paying attention.

Of course, the outcome of the Mueller investigation is a wildcard. We live in interesting times.

bk

Trust Me, Inflation And Higher Interest Rates Are Good For Stocks…
1 year ago

Thank you for your comments. I agree with your comments about price discovery and the high debt levels we are facing. As we create more consumers around the world the depressive effects of globalization will become stimulative. Inflation then becomes very real concern. And the potential for significant market issues really comes into focus. My bet here is that it will take quite a bit of time for that to happen. Ergo,it is safe to be in the equity pool right now.

Bk.

The Fed Minutes — Another ‘irrational Exuberance’ Moment
1 year ago

Moon, thank you for your comment. Generally speaking secular bull markets, such as the one we are currently in, always ended badly... maybe for the reasons you have stated or something out of left field. My point is simply that I believe we are not near that point at current writing.

bk

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Wendle, this any better?

What one dollar invested in 1802 would have been worth in 2012:

(total real returns -- adjusted for inflation)

• $ 704,999.00 if invested in common stock

• $ 1,778.00 if invested in bonds

• $ 281.00 if invested in t-bills

• $ 4.52 if invested in gold

• $ 0.05 if left under the mattress

(source-jeremysiegel.cocm)

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Gary, I am not certain that I can agree with you on this. It looks to me like they are using every tool in there toolbox, extremely low interest-rate's, A tremendous amount of increase in their balance sheet and they are moving exceedingly slow when it comes to raising interest rates. Three quarters of a point off 0 to 25 basis points is a pittance. They need to get short-term rates up a little bit more so that in the event and economic shock they can move to lower them again. having lived through prosperous times with much higher rates, I can guarantee you the current moves by the Fed are not stifling growth. as it pertains to the Fed taking the economy down, it usually helps if there are big excesses in the economy. I just don't see that right now. Oh well, that's what makes horse races.

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Gary, thank you for your comment. The ability of the Fed to stimulate inflation or curtail it is greatly over-estimated. For example, since the bottom in 2009 Fed monetary policy has been extremely stimulative. However, it has had very little effect on inflation. I think the number one factor curbing inflation over the past two decade, has been globalization... cheap labor around the world being substituted for high priced labor in the United States. This has been extremely painful for us. We just did not have a plan to deal with it... re-training, education etc.

I guess we could have put on protective tariffs. Not only would that have been extremely inflationary but it probably would have stimulated a trade war which would've been disastrous for all. I do not fault business for moving production to those lower wage cost markets, they had to do it to compete. I also cannot fault business for automation. They had to do this to compete.

It has been great for consumers and terrible for workers. it has been why everything you buy at Walmart, for the most part, is very inexpensive.

Unless we figure out a way to bring lower skilled labor into higher paying more skilled positions, this problem will persist. On top of this, because the skilled labor market wage structure has been capped by foreign competition, the minimum wage worker in this country has been really hurt because inflation in food and energy crisis over the past 20 years has really eaten in to their scant wages.

The long-term cure is already in the works, because we are creating consuming middle classes in some of the largest population blocks in the world, China and India. It is already providing for wage pressures in China. And production in some industries is coming back on shore. On the inflation front these middle classes are going to want to live like us. This should provide dramatic increases in demand for commodities and consumer goods world wide (again, all of this will totally be out of the Fed's control).

All of this in the long run is good for the United States. Asia is minting a significant number of new potential customers. But again, this whole thing continues to be a very painful process for many while the investor class continues to make money. I wish I had a solution.

Again, thanks for the comment.

bk

1 to 9 of 9 comments

STOCKS I FOLLOW

AAPL Apple Inc.
ADRU BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fund
AER AerCap Holdings N.V.
BNO UNITED STATES BRENT OIL FUND
BWF Wells Fargo Capital XII
BXUB Barclays Bank PLC
BXUC Barclays Bank PLC
CRF Cornerstone Total Return Fund
DBEU Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hdgd Eq
DBEZ Deutsche X-trackers MSCI EMU Hedged Eq
DBO PowerShares DB Oil Fund
DBUK Deutsche X-trackers UK Hedged Equity ETF
DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
DEZU iShares Adaptive Ccy Hdgd MSCI Euroz ETF
DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
DNO United States Short Oil Fund LP
DOG ProShares Short Dow30
DTO DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN
DWTI VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN
DXD ProShares UltraShort Dow30
DXPS WisdomTree UK Hedged ETF
EEA The European Equity Fund Inc.
EEH ELEMENTS Linked to the SPECTRUM Large CAP U.S. Sector Momentum Index
EPS WisdomTree Earnings 500 Fund
EPV UltraShort MSCI Europe ProShares
EQL ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF
EURL Direxion Daily FTSE Europe Bull 3x Shares ETF
EWU iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index Fund
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Google)
MSFT Microsoft Corporation
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TWEETS

LATEST ACTIVITY

Pre-emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways was just posted to Bill Kort's personal blog.
Bill Kort Commented on Ugly, But True. And, As Usual, Late To The Party:

Thanks for your readership Carl. I think Miller and Fearand Greed trader are two of the best out there for content and a well reasoned market opinion.

Bill Kort Commented on A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear:

Thanks Boaz. I’m all set now, getting both notifications of new followers and comments. I appreciate your help.

All Posts

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Pre-Emptive Fed Strikes + Having It Both Ways
Just when you thought media/pundit commentary on the market and the economy couldn’t get anymore inane and stupid, they surprise you by plumbing a new depth.
Jeffery Gundlach - S&P Headed To New Lows
Commentary on the value of expert advice, especially that of Jeffrey Gundlach
A 'Bad Trip' Down Memory Lane
A look at the similarities and dissimilarities between the 1973-1974 market and the market we are experiencing today
Thanksgiving 2018–What I’m Thankful For
A short course on peace of mind when investing
An Amazing Prediction From 1796
George Washington saw USA 2018 coming over 200 years ago -- the evils of excessive partisanship.

Work Experience

Investor/Blogger/Speaker on The Media & The Market
Retired
December 2012 - Present (6 years 9 months)

I am retired but continue to manage my own money, blog and speak on the subject of stock market and the media reporting of business and economic matters.

Director Institutional Equity Sales
Well Fargo Securities
2007 - 2012 (5 years 7 months)

Sales -- Wells Fargo Institutional Equity Research and Trading services to Banks, Insurance Companies, Mutual Funds and Register Investment Advisors

Vice President Institutional Equity Sales
A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc.
August 1990 - October 2007 (17 years 5 months)

Education

University of Wisconsin-Madison
Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA)
1966 / 1968
Marketing, Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services

Publications