I have been investing in stocks for over 50 years. I began my career in the brokerage business as a retail stockbroker in 1970 with a Kansas City based regional firm. That firm was acquired in 1978 by Kidder, Peabody. At Kidder my business moved to the institutional ...
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I have been investing in stocks for over 50 years. I began my career in the brokerage business as a retail stockbroker in 1970 with a Kansas City based regional firm. That firm was acquired in 1978 by Kidder, Peabody. At Kidder my business moved to the institutional (wholesale) side of the firm, selling the firm’s equity research and syndicate products to banks, investment advisors, insurance companies and mutual funds. In 1990 I joined St. Louis based A.G. Edwards as one of their first hires in the development of a fledgling institutional business. Seventeen years later Edwards was sold to Wachovia. The following year, in the depths of the financial crisis, Wachovia was taken over by Wells Fargo. In 2012 I retired from Wells Fargo to manage my own money, try my hand at blogging and enjoying life with my wife, children and grandchildren.
My blog aims to offer a sensible counterpoint to the twenty-four/seven media, political, punditry cycle and its continuous barrage of bad news, misinformation and fear mongering. Much of this is noise that scares and confuses individual investors. Interestingly, based on my experience with institutional investors, they can become bogged down in this same quagmire as well.
My goal is to share with the investor the perspective and historical context gained during my 42 years in the investment industry. I do believe that history repeats itself and that this adage holds true for the markets. Most investors do not have the time or inclination to follow the daily ins and outs of the stock market or the economy. I did and continue to follow the both very closely. I hope you find our work to be helpful in your quest for investment returns.
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Latest Comments
Inflation And Interest Rates: “Keep Calm And Carry On”
Correct, the market went up yesterday and gave more than twice back today. My post goes into a lot of detail about the inflation we are experiencing. Energy and food are not something easily regulated by Fed policy. It seems to me that the market has its knickers in a twist over the possibility that the Fed will induce a recession. BTW the economic research Bureau defines a recession as two consecutive down quarters of GDP. On the surface that type of slowdown does not seem to onerous. Meanwhile, the market is acting like we are heading into financial crisis number two, some sort of new pandemic, or a horrible black swan event. None of this seems to be in the cards right now except for the black swan. Since you can't predict them I will assume for the time being the next black swan is not just around the corner as the last one, the pandemic, was such a recent happening. I see the current cyclical bear market where the very stretched technology sector has really taken it on the chin to be completely normal in the context of a secular bull market. Lots of great opportunities are being created in this panic.my advice is to keep the faith and take advantage of the fire sale prices. As for jobs regardless of the price of gasoline, former burger flippers wages have gone from $10 an hour to 20/$25 an hour probably still feel like they've died and gone to heaven. Due to demographics higher paid more experienced workers find it much easier to trade jobs to better higher paying positions today than ever. The fact that your stock prices have gone down, as usual, May not be indicative of what's going on in the real economy.
The current panic in stocks which seem to represent a great opportunity to keep the faith as well as pick up some very interesting bargains. Again I would advise you to read my post thoroughly. There is a lot of positive perspective in that post that I agleaned over the past 50 years as an investment professional.
thank you for your comment.
bk
Imminent Corrections And Other Things That Scare Us
Thank you Anne. Sorry about the late response but I do appreciate your readership.
bk
What’s Bugging’ This Market? Record Highs And No Celebrations
Thank you Michele. I appreciate you taking a look at the article.
Bk
The Death Of Oil
Wall street Wiz, my sense is that Mr. Newman was being facetious with his comment. Although I cannot speak for him I am pretty much in agreement with your bullish call on CVX.
The Death Of Oil
Craig, that’s kind of what it looks like.
Biden’s Big Lead Could Be Partly Behind Market’s Drop
Adam, thanks for your comment. I think the market likes huge stimulus and zero interest rates (Regardless of the party in power) into the forseable future much better than it Will have ever liked Mr. Trump.
“In A Stock Market Like This, Anything Could Cause The Next Panic”
Andrew, it is easy to be pessimistic in the media overload we get each day. Most of this is negative because it gets your attention. I think you need to step back and realize that 85% of people that get coronavirus do not go to the emergency room and they don’t die. The vast majority of fatalities a cure in the population above 80 years old and with prior Health issues.
So far there have been 3,138,000 test confirmed cases and 218,000 deaths. Which would give you about a 6% fatality rate. However there could be millions of cases That have been undiagnosed that could drop this fatality rate considerably. And this issue of undiagnosed cases is beginning to get more and more press. Importantly, you need to consider all the completely outrageously wrong predictions that were made over the past two months.
So far our current pandemic does not hold a candle to that of the Spanish influenza. Please take a look at this link. www.cdc.gov/.../1918-pandemic-history.htm
This too will pass. Coming out the other side we will be dealing with a huge amount of stimulus both monetary and fiscal. My sense is it’s going to have a very positive affect on the market.
Thanks for stopping by.
bk
A Postcard From The Bunker
Not really. In our democracy it is up to all of us to be critical Thinkers. Buyer beware!The sad thing is that the commander in chief is wired into the Fox echo chamber. The echo chamber always agrees with the commander in chief.That’s why we are in the position we find ourselves at today. Critical thinkers have no place at this table.
A Postcard From The Bunker
Andrew they have never ever been our friend.Thank you Roger Ailes wherever you are.
Coronavirus Panic: Time To Chill, Breath In And Breath Out … And Consider The Facts.
There was a point in time when the Chinese were having trouble getting tests, just like the United States, to test everyone. To compensate, anybody scanned with pneumonia like images were immediately classified as coronavirus cases and placed in the number. I presume subsequently they were tested.
As to the real number of coronavirus cases in China or anyplace else, the symptoms in many people especially the young are so minor, they won’t be tested. I am assuming if everybody actually had the virus we’re counted, The death rate would be much lower. So far in the United States at least as of last night most of the people who have passed away were residents of the same nursing facility.
I would agree with you that the numbers in the United States and anyplace else the viruses surfaced are probably much higher but the symptoms are much weaker in the young. Anyway, I think it is time to step back and reassess the panic. People in the most at risk group Should not go into crowds, should not take cruises, should not travel abroad. The rest of us should be washing our hands more often and start thinking about resuming normal activities. This is not the Spanish influenza.