Bill Kort - Comments
Investor/Blogger/Speaker on The Media & The Market
Contributor's Links: Kort Sessions

I have been investing in stocks for over 53 years.   I began my career in the brokerage business as a retail stockbroker in 1970 with a Kansas City based regional firm H.O. Peet & Co. Inc.  Peet was acquired in 1978 by Kidder, Peabody.  This marked a turning point in my career ... more

Latest Comments
Ugly, But True. And, As Usual, Late To The Party
3 months ago

Thanks for your readership Carl. I think Miller and Fearand Greed trader are two of the best out there for content and a well reasoned market opinion.

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Thanks Boaz. I’m all set now, getting both notifications of new followers and comments. I appreciate your help.

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Thanks Zev. I appreciate your readership. A more interesting idea, if you’re looking for diversification and income would be A closed and fund, the Tortiose Midstream Enrgy Fund (NTG). This is a diversified portfolio of master limited partnerships. Their largest holding is energy transfer and they are diversified. You don’t have to worry about a K-1 with this fund and it is yielding over 12%. This is an industry that has been through the ringer and rightfully so.But, it’s come out the other side with much better fundamentals and a retail shareholder base but totally abandoned it Christmas Eve 2018.

Thanks for checking in.

bk

A Look Into The Belly Of The Bear
6 months ago

Alpha S., Thank you for your readership and your question. I try to keep kortsessions apolital because using political leanings and convictions to set an investment course is usually a bad idea. For example there were a lot of people after the 2008 election of Barack Obama who were basically saying that he had no clue as to how to address the economy and that we were heading for disaster. This was especially the chant on the right. Of course, they were wrong. The S &P 500 triple during the Obama administration. Likewise there were those who felt the Trump administration would be a disaster ( including yours truly). Fortunately, he did not take me too long to figure out the tax cuts and on bridled free-market economics where the focus of the market, i.e. Profits. The market was not focused on the presidents bona fides and character. It was all about making money.

On a short-term basis however the market does care about certain things the president says and does especially as it involves trade and the federal reserve. Ergo, these comments become fodder for this blog.

As to your question, my answer is may be no. My sense is that the current shut down is really putting the Republican Party in a very bad place. There is an answer to their problems, should they choose to take it, and that is to override the president’s Veto of the continuing resolution. In the meantime, as long as the Senate will not confront the president, it’s business as usual. Also, a lot of that which emanates from the White House pure bluster. The market’sReaction to the current shut down would seem to indicate that it is no longer paying attention.

Of course, the outcome of the Mueller investigation is a wildcard. We live in interesting times.

bk

Trust Me, Inflation And Higher Interest Rates Are Good For Stocks…
1 year ago

Thank you for your comments. I agree with your comments about price discovery and the high debt levels we are facing. As we create more consumers around the world the depressive effects of globalization will become stimulative. Inflation then becomes very real concern. And the potential for significant market issues really comes into focus. My bet here is that it will take quite a bit of time for that to happen. Ergo,it is safe to be in the equity pool right now.

Bk.

The Fed Minutes — Another ‘irrational Exuberance’ Moment
1 year ago

Moon, thank you for your comment. Generally speaking secular bull markets, such as the one we are currently in, always ended badly... maybe for the reasons you have stated or something out of left field. My point is simply that I believe we are not near that point at current writing.

bk

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Wendle, this any better?

What one dollar invested in 1802 would have been worth in 2012:

(total real returns -- adjusted for inflation)

• $ 704,999.00 if invested in common stock

• $ 1,778.00 if invested in bonds

• $ 281.00 if invested in t-bills

• $ 4.52 if invested in gold

• $ 0.05 if left under the mattress

(source-jeremysiegel.cocm)

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Gary, I am not certain that I can agree with you on this. It looks to me like they are using every tool in there toolbox, extremely low interest-rate's, A tremendous amount of increase in their balance sheet and they are moving exceedingly slow when it comes to raising interest rates. Three quarters of a point off 0 to 25 basis points is a pittance. They need to get short-term rates up a little bit more so that in the event and economic shock they can move to lower them again. having lived through prosperous times with much higher rates, I can guarantee you the current moves by the Fed are not stifling growth. as it pertains to the Fed taking the economy down, it usually helps if there are big excesses in the economy. I just don't see that right now. Oh well, that's what makes horse races.

Fed Balance Sheet Shrink: Big Problem Or Non-Event?
2 years ago

Gary, thank you for your comment. The ability of the Fed to stimulate inflation or curtail it is greatly over-estimated. For example, since the bottom in 2009 Fed monetary policy has been extremely stimulative. However, it has had very little effect on inflation. I think the number one factor curbing inflation over the past two decade, has been globalization... cheap labor around the world being substituted for high priced labor in the United States. This has been extremely painful for us. We just did not have a plan to deal with it... re-training, education etc.

I guess we could have put on protective tariffs. Not only would that have been extremely inflationary but it probably would have stimulated a trade war which would've been disastrous for all. I do not fault business for moving production to those lower wage cost markets, they had to do it to compete. I also cannot fault business for automation. They had to do this to compete.

It has been great for consumers and terrible for workers. it has been why everything you buy at Walmart, for the most part, is very inexpensive.

Unless we figure out a way to bring lower skilled labor into higher paying more skilled positions, this problem will persist. On top of this, because the skilled labor market wage structure has been capped by foreign competition, the minimum wage worker in this country has been really hurt because inflation in food and energy crisis over the past 20 years has really eaten in to their scant wages.

The long-term cure is already in the works, because we are creating consuming middle classes in some of the largest population blocks in the world, China and India. It is already providing for wage pressures in China. And production in some industries is coming back on shore. On the inflation front these middle classes are going to want to live like us. This should provide dramatic increases in demand for commodities and consumer goods world wide (again, all of this will totally be out of the Fed's control).

All of this in the long run is good for the United States. Asia is minting a significant number of new potential customers. But again, this whole thing continues to be a very painful process for many while the investor class continues to make money. I wish I had a solution.

Again, thanks for the comment.

bk

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