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As we round out the second month of 'Trump 2.0,' certain initiatives are up in the air, especially tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding them; both of which have been causing market pandemonium.

Yet there’s one area of certainty that the administration continues to hold strong, hidden behind the current chaos. The White House has signaled through Executive Orders, trade negotiations, tariff posturing, and more that having a strong U.S. energy sector is crucial. 

Now, we are seeing greater support for fossil fuels over renewable energy from the Trump administration. But the truth is, at least for now, even clean energy requires fossil fuels. And the great equalizer is that both require a reliable and resilient power grid.

That’s why bipartisan efforts to strengthen the U.S. nuclear energy industry’s role on the global stage remain an internal-beltway constant. Nuclear power is a reliable, baseload power. It sits in the core arsenal of the U.S. Department of Energy’s policy.

And while energy policies matter, they also reveal key details about recent uranium prices that we’ll detail below.

What the Secretary of Energy Vowed About Nuclear Energy

In his first set of orders, Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright underscored Trump’s priority, affirming that as global energy demand escalates, the U.S. must “lead the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy.”

This notion has immutable bi-partisan support and rests on legislation already put into law.

The Nuclear Fuel Security Act became law as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) of 2024 in December 2023. The act also provided $2.7 billion in funding to jump-start uranium enrichment capacity in the country – a critical component of nuclear energy.

Last May, President Biden signed the bi-partisan Prohibiting Uranium Imports Act into law. It bans imports of certain uranium products from the Russian Federation or a Russian entity.

Last June, Congress passed the ADVANCE Act. The bipartisan bill, signed into law in July, modernizes and hastens the regulatory environment for licensing new reactor technologies.

On the back of that legislation, tech goliaths Google, Amazon, and Microsoft vowed to invest in small reactors and nuclear power to support their growing data-center based energy demand. Because of the demand and backing of tech giants, the energy sector is now responding. That momentum has transferred from Biden to Trump, and it will likely transcend many future administrations to come.

The Reliable Energy Source Fueling U.S. Energy Independence

Cut to February 2025. In his first Secretarial Order, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright directed the Department of Energy “to take immediate action to unleash American Energy in accordance with President Trump’s executive orders.”

Wright said, “the Department’s R&D efforts will prioritize affordable, reliable, and secure energy technologies, including fossil fuels, advanced nuclear, geothermal, and hydropower.”

As we’ve pointed out previously, the global race for dominance in the AI space also requires policy directives to, as Wright affirmed, “prioritize true technological breakthroughs – such as nuclear fusion, high-performance computing, quantum computing, and AI – to maintain America’s global competitiveness.”

The kicker to Secretary Wright’s nine orders is contained in item 7.

“As global energy demand continues to grow, America must lead the commercialization of affordable and abundant nuclear energy. As such, the Department will work diligently and creatively to enable the rapid deployment and export of next-generation nuclear technology.”

Eureka. Even Archimedes would see that bi-partisan, cross-administration continuity is part of the U.S. energy agenda.

This goal is especially broad for nuclear power. Nuclear energy has cast a wide net. Currently, it drives 20% of electricity in the U.S. Augmented by AI-demand, supercomputing impacts on the electric grid, and more – what we’ve seen is that advanced nuclear technology, such as small and micro-modular reactors, and beyond will garner an “all hands on deck” approach given its role in solving the energy dilemma. And any form of nuclear power requires uranium.

So Why Aren’t Uranium Prices Rising?

Since their recent peak early last year, uranium prices have dropped from $106 per pound to around $63 per pound today.

But the fact is that recommissioning “mothballed” nuclear facilities takes time, permitting, investment, and resources. As a result, nuclear infrastructure can potentially fall behind uranium demand, regardless of what the uranium supply picture looks like.

Meanwhile, uranium mining company share prices (as demonstrated by the URNM ETF), which peaked in February and again in October 2024, have dropped by about 38% since then.

Both of those peaks were exacerbated by the “buy the rumor, sell the news” mentality. That’s because the potential passage of the Nuclear Fuel Security Act drove miner prices up. Its passage unleashed a surge of profit taking. Similarly, mega-tech company support for nuclear energy and technology pushed prices upward in October, which then fell given the lack of specificity on nuclear energy from the administration so far.

But there’s more to the story.

You see, nothing has significantly changed with U.S. nuclear policy, support for nuclear technology, or the need for domestic and allied uranium to support U.S. energy independence. Nothing has changed for nuclear power support at the global level, either.

The truth is that the U.S. Department of Energy’s orders from Secretary Wright got lost in a sea of tariff news and other headlines. On top of that, there was also the DeepSeek head-fake about reduced energy use. And while there has been no new mega-laws and funding to serve as a catalyst like those detailed above, the same demand from tech and AI companies on the docket from the new Congress persists.

My contacts in Washington DC are telling me that more information could come from the U.S. government and DOE in the next couple of months on uranium and nuclear policy. That could push uranium prices to their forward levels of $80-$85 and beyond by mid-year or later.

Forward uranium prices show an estimated $80 level against spot prices of $65 in February. That differential is an indication of where the true buyers and sellers of the market expect prices to go.

If that happens, uranium miner prices would move in tandem, and these depressed levels could be buying opportunities for investors. Now, it’s important to keep in mind that current volatility will impact all prices. That’s why it is critical to be careful when building positions in anything right now.

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