The Rainbow Sign
Yesterday the stock market gave a rainbow sign, which either means we are coming into land, or that it will rain on our stocks for another 40 days. It either means that our towering stock prices will hold together or that the tower will crash.
My biblical references reflect the Torah (Jewish Bible) reading last Saturday, Noah, telling of the Great Flood and the Tower of Babel. Today's blog tells about animals that are on the ship, like bulls and bears, but despite news from Australia, not kangaroos. Elephants, yes; kangaroos, no. Marsupials were not present in the region where the Bible was dictated or written.
*Macro-economy expert John Llewellyn whom I reunioned with last week here, yesterday issued a commentary on his week-long visit which is not flattering.
“New York is exhibiting all-too-familiar signs of irrational exuberance, while also offering hints of deeper maladies in the US economy.” He cites “hubris” and calls my hometown in 2018 “redolent of the swaggering myopic New York of 1986, 1999, and 2006.” He also called the infrastructure here (notably the airports) like the“third world”. He warns of “trouble ahead.” We published a more detailed commentary on our website which barely got to readers because the tech sector low-level employees don't have a clue about how to get my blog back into your mailboxes. You can read the back numbers online at www.global-investing.com or at the free moneyshow.com digest under the title “John Lllewellyn: Macroeconomic Conditions are Dangerous.” (Top Pros Top Picks has my photo on the article rather than John's.)
Pharmaceuticals
*Novartis (Swiss NVS) will present a 5-yr “post hoc” phase III followup on its Cosentyx for treating psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis at a Chicago Medical conference. PSA patients showed reduced signs and symptoms in 83% to 94% of PSA. Patients were highly compliant and there were no new safety issues. Cosentyx Q2 sales were $701 mn, vs 490 mn in Q2 2017. NVS gained 2.1%.
*Crosstown competitor Roche, which gained after a deal yesterday, rose another 2.6% yesterday. RHHBY.
*BiolineRX of Israel continues its rise because of new funding, was up another 5%+ yesterday (My US biotechs are up too, Cerus, by 6.3%, Esperion by 6.05% Eyepoint by 5.2% and larger Exelixis 4.2% so it is partly because of the sector. ESPR got coverage and a buy rating yesterday from BTIG Research.)
*Canadian Zymeworks was up ~3% yesterday.
*Novo Nordisk of Denmark gained after it appointed a new head of biopharma yesterday and also bought back lots of NVO stock.
*Teva and Eagle Pharma filed a US patent lawsuit against Mylan and Fresenius over generic Bendeka, a non-Hodgkins lymphoma drug the Israeli firm patented last summer.
Industrials
*BAE System's active sticks which do flight control on Gulfstream G500 aircraft were certified by the US Federal Aviation Administration, the first certification for a civil active interceptor. The UK firm also demonstrated that its patented XTS Guard 5 geospatial exploitation product provided US intelligence organizations with accessible imagery and data they could share. The UK defense stock is under water because of the Saudi Arabian Khashoggi crisis, as Riyadh is a major customer. However, Bernstein brokers argue that it BAESY is “undervalued” and can compound its annual EPS growth by 9% over the next 4 years, mostly in Saudi Arabia. It goes ex-div Oct. 18. It nonetheless rose 2.9% yesterday and is approaching $30.9.
*The planned IPO of Uber at $120 mn next year is boosting the automobile sector all over the highway.
*Swedish Autoliv had a new buy recommendation yesterday which boosted the ALV share price by 2.3%.
*Its Veoneer spinoff, VNE, rose 3.5%. Both are viewed as auto parts suppliers.
*Japan's Fanuc, FANUY, also treated as an autoplay, rose 2.6%.
*Fiat Chrysler, FCAU, also rose ~3%.
Banks
*However firms financing auto purchases did not rise. In fact, banks were weak sisters yesterday.
*A writer on seekingalpha.com who appears to be a college student, using the by-line Dividend Daze, has bought a handful of shares of Bank of Nova Scotia for its 4.75% yield. Why would a student want to buy dividend stocks overgrowth? Why is he buying to get dividends every month? Maybe he is reading John Llewellyn.
Materials
*However Johnson-Matthey whose business lines include platinum for automobile catalytic converters is down 15% on a bearish call by Investec brokers.
*Despite panic calls over the delay or reversal of its sale of 25% of its stake in Chilean lithium producer SoQuiMich by the Chilean Supreme Court, Canadian Nutrien is up 2.2% on the booming price of its main product, potash. The Supremos will hear the case Oct. 22.
*Orocobre which mines lithium in Argentina and its native Australia gained 3.9%.
*Cosan which makes refines sugar and makes ethanol in Brazil and runs logistics and gas station facilities there and in Argentina, rose to $7.52 yesterday, up over 2.5%.
*Tomra SystemsT, the Norwegian maker of reverse vending and sorting machines will report on its Q3 next Tues. TMRAY sprang to mind when I read in yesterday's Financial Times about the Dutch silicon valley which is developing ways to enhance fruits and vegetables using different colored lights. Of course, there aren't really any mountains or valleys in the Netherlands.
Tech & Tel
*Nokia of Finland will deploy a private LTE network to Brazilian Elektro's grid (part of Neoenergia-Iberdrola) in areas around São Paulo province in Brazil to keep the ute supplies working if there is a power outage and to cut costs for doing so. It uses mart meters to track power usage to shift consumption to low demand period. NOK also has created a fixed access network quality control “Access Health Index” and “FastMile to measure and improve fixed telephone and broadband access systems from antennas, compact receivers, and indoor gateways. NOK also is launching a Multivendor ONU connection virtualized “plug and play” system for quickly and cheaply integrating 3rd party connections in Passive Optical Networks (PON).
*Infosys of India, sold, had mixed Q2 results but the market viewed them favorably and it rose 5%+.
*Tower Semiconductor sales yesterday over concerns about dual-purpose tech being sold to China reversed and TSEM recovered. In fact, chips are up all over.
*Mercado Libre of Argentina was back over $300 yesterday in the news that other emerging markets are tempting its rivals like Amazon and Walmart, which may become distracted. Also, Barclays raised MELI to overweight although analysts are particularly mixed about its prospects.
*Nintendo is up again and near the price, we paid for the Japanese maker of The Switch. NTDOY.
*Both Tencent and Naspers are barely in recovery mode but we have seen this before. TCEHY is down 0.5% while NPSNY which fell further has regained 2.75% but is still below $40
Food & Drink
*Greencore continues in the green, up another 5.76% in London trading on Tuesday after it announced the sale of its US salad and easy meal assets. It rose despite a reduction in stake by Luxembourg fund manager Axxion SA to under 5% yesterday.
REIT
*Fibra Uno which invests in Mexican commercial, factory, and educational buildings, rose 2.55% on Tuesday. It may be gaining because the future Presidente wants to run a referendum on giving Mexico City a new, non-third world airport.
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DearAlpha
Not my invention at all. There is a spiritual called Rise & Shine which tells the Noah story, which all Americans learn to sing as kids. It has the final verse:
Lord gave Noah the rainbow sign
No more water but the fire next time.
That marked the end of the Biblical flood.
Interesting term, "the rainbow sign." I like it, did you coin it yourself? I haven't heard it used before.
I think it all comes down to quarterly reporting now.