In my last article for TalkMarkets, I provided my followers with a table called My Grim Reaper Prognostication for coronavirus daily deaths in the United States for the two-week period between March 22 and April 4. In that prognostication, I predicted the U.S. would suffer the loss of more than 12,000 Americans during this short two-week period and more than 3,200 just on April 4, a week from this Saturday.

For those of you who are not mathematicians, those numbers may sound preposterous. I am here to tell you they are not. In fact, my Grim Reaper predictions could be on the low side. Three days have passed since putting out my Grim Reaper projections and here are the early results. 

The Grim Reaper predicted 72 U.S. deaths for this past Sunday, March 22. The actual number 113. 

The Grim Reaper predicted 94 U.S. deaths for Monday, March 23. The actual number 141.

The Grim Reaper predicted 133 U.S. deaths for yesterday, March 24. The actual number 225.

Do you see a pattern here?

Ah, yes Jim, but 3,200 deaths in one day, just eleven days from now? That cannot be. Heck, cumulative to date, the U.S. has only suffered a total of 780 deaths in total. There is no way, the U.S. could lose 3,200 of its citizens in one day--a week from this Saturday. Those numbers are worse than even Italy’s. You must have your head up someplace I would not want to go.

Now to a non-mathematician, numbers like my Grim Reaper prediction may seem impossible. I admit that. But let me tell you—my numbers represent the nature of an exponentiality. And it is the exponentiality that half of us Americans are trying to bend or stop with our "shelter in place" effort. My Grim Reaper projection assumes that we have not done enough to stop the exponentiality with this half-hearted effort. 

As I said in last Sunday’s article, you might as well ignore the "new case" count in the United States. The real case count is much larger than that being reported. We simply are not testing. We were not testing and we still are not testing like we should. And that statement is not just based upon what I hear, but on analyzing the data itself. Two weeks prior to March 24 when the reported death count was 111, the U.S. was reporting approximately 500 total cases. One week prior to March 24, we were reporting less than 4,000 cases. There would not have been 111 deaths on March 24 if those case numbers were correct.  After all, it does take time to die once you contract the virus.

The only truly reliable measurement to measure performance is the death count. And it is not going to be long before the United States is again a world leader—but this time, we will lead in something we should not be proud of. Thanks to our new leader's truly appalling self-centered, all about himself, leadership effort, things are going to get bad for us very soon. And soon the Grim Reaper predicts it is going to bite new leader in his oversized butt.

The sad thing about what I am telling you is: I hope I am wrong.  

But the sad thing about that is: I don't think I am.

For those of you who say that no one knows what the numbers are really going to be, here is what I have to say to that. Yes, no one knows what the numbers are “really” going to be. However, and this is a big however with a capital H—all the scientists, all the mathematicians, and all our health care people know that the big numbers are coming. And because new leader has only put in a half-hearted effort on the health side of the equation nothing at this point is going to stop the big numbers from coming. And nothing they say on Fox News is going to stop them either.

Back to work by Easter? Forget it. That is poppycock. Don’t even begin to think about that!  It is way too early to start talking about getting back to full employment!

Now with that said, I would like to turn to some additional analysis that I have performed and share with you some of the conversations I am having with friends, colleagues, and family relating to this coronavirus pandemic. 

Yesterday I began comparing the U.S. coronavirus numbers to those of ten other large countries (i.e., China, Italy, Germany, France, South Korea, Iran, Switzerland, Spain, United Kingdom, and the Netherlands). 

Deaths per Total Cases from my data source show China at 4.0%; Italy 9.6%; Spain 6.6%; the United States 1.2%, etc. I do not believe any of those numbers. I believe the death count; I just don't believe the case count.  So that makes things very difficult to analyze.

Therefore, based upon my knowledge of where different countries are in the process according to news sources, I have started looking at the data in other ways. There is always another way to skin a cat.

And here is the best of my "new" indicators that I have come up with so far. I believe they might very well show us best where a country stands in solving the problem in a country.   

1) The number of cases where people have recovered versus the total number of cases. And here are those numbers: China 89.7%; South Korea 35.3%; Italy 11.7%; France 11,1%; Spain 9.5%; Great Britain 2.0%; Germany 1.6%; and the United States of America 0.6%.

2) The number of new Daily Deaths compared to the number of new cases.  And here is what those numbers look like: China 23.1%; Italy 12.5%; South Korea 10.9%; Spain 8.5%; Great Britain 5.6%; France 4.8%; United States 1.4%; and Germany 0.7%.

Now here is how to interpret the above. Germany and the United States have only begun to deal with their problem, while the other countries are way ahead in the processing cycle. In other words, the death counts for Germany and the United States are lagging those of other countries.  Soon Germany’s and the United States’ numbers are going to increase at a much more rapid pace than those of the other countries. 

This same phenomenon is happening internally in the United States. New York state is the current leader, but that is now. The numbers for Michigan, Florida, Texas are going to lag those of New York, but their day of reckoning will come, too.

A friend, ex-colleague of mine said he thought pollution in China and Iran and age in Italy is playing a role in the higher death rate per case for those countries. All that is true, and I do believe it might explain why one country's death rate might be higher or lower than another country’s rate. But taking out pollution as a factor, with this pandemic it pretty much comes down to age. 

There was a very good graph in Time Magazine this past week that showed the death rates for three countries (China, South Korea, and Italy). Here is roughly what that death rate table showed: 18% if older than 80; 13% if age 70-79; 8% for 60-69 age group, etc. The graph stopped at the age group 40-49 because the death rate below that was somewhat negligible.

We must remember, however, that all we are talking about here is this coronavirus virus. I can remember my mother telling me about the pandemic that went through the United States back in 1918. My mother lived on a small rural farm in mid-North Indiana. She was about six years old when that pandemic virus went through and she remembered entire farm families being wiped out (e.g., mother, father, and six kids). Essentially, what I am saying is this: don't begin to think the next virus won't hurt a different age group in the future. Young children were among the hardest hit with the 1918 pandemic and the records are there to prove it. Hell, who knows the next virus might only target those predominantly attached to Facebook.

So, what I am saying is this. Let us treat this as an opportunity and start to learn how to manage these things. I would not be the least surprised to learn that global warming is playing a factor and even more dangerous viruses could begin showing up in the not too distant future. 

Let's take the hit now and learn something. Look at this as an opportunity, not a curse.  Let us admit our own failures.  We can learn a lot from other countries. We are not alone on this planet. China was more prepared to handle this pandemic because of what they learned about SARS. We learned nothing when SARS went through a few years back. South Korea is another good example of real leadership regarding pandemic handling.  

The United States needs to quit whining, stand up and shelter in place to protect those most vulnerable now. The next time it will be a different group. It all comes down to "money" or "health". And I always was always told by the old-timers of my generation that "Your Health Is Everything--If You Don't Have Your Health, You Don't Have Anything."

Finally, I would like to try and end this on a high note.  As part of my dialogue with friends and family, one friend offered me the link to the 1985 video USA for Africa, We Are the World. I believe this is a good time to go back and receive that message again.

I only wish the new leader would get the message, too.