In my last article for Talkmarkets I explained why the United States health care system rated poorly against other industrialized nations in my macro-globanomic model.  Please take a moment to review that article when you get a chance. 

Now, like probably most of you, I have been listening to the different news outlets as they put their own spin on the way the United States is managing the current coronavirus pandemic.  From my vantage point I feel that those outlets in favor of new leader’s leadership tend to look at the pandemic in what I would call a rather rose-colored viewpoint, while those critical of new leader’s leadership tend to view the pandemic in rather dark-colored viewpoint. 

As a math major, nuclear engineer, and a Wharton M.B.A. I consider myself to be a pretty good analyst on my own right.  So yesterday, rather than depending on these outside sources, I decided I would do my own independent analysis of the pandemic crisis in the United States by looking at the daily coronavirus figures for the United States as provided by worldometers.info.

What follows are my initial findings and analysis.  Later in this article, I will provide my Grim Reaper prognostication for the next two weeks.

• The first cases of coronavirus in the United States, 15 in total, were reported on February 15.
   
• The number of cases as reported by the United States remained the same for six days and only reached 100 on March 2 (sixteen days after the reporting of the first cases on Feb. 15).  It took another nine days (March 11) for the total number of reported cases in the United States to reach 1000.
   
• Since March 11, with the deployment of moderately improved, yet still extremely lacking, testing capabilities, the number of reported cases in the United States has doubled every 2.4 days.
   
• Based upon the daily data available, known facts about testing in the United States including Dr. Fauci’s comments to Congress about our testing failures, and my own analytical prowess, I determined that I could not trust any of the coronavirus case numbers and that I had to look for a different measurement if I was going to be able to grapple with what was actually going on in the United States.
   
• Because of our extremely poor performance in testing, the only reliable measurement that I feel we have to measure our performance is through the daily count of deaths attributed to the virus.  The death count is the only truly reliable figure one can believe in the data provided.  Despairingly I focused my attention on this data element in what I call my Grim Reaper perspective.
   
• The first death attributed to the coronavirus took place on Feb.29, exactly two weeks after Feb. 15.
   
• Since that time, the average death rate in the United States based upon the following algorithm (daily deaths compared to the number of reported cases two weeks before) is 13.4% with a correlation, r = .889.
   
• Now let me be perfectly clear here.  I am not saying the death rate is 13.4% (my best layman’s guess is that it is more like in the 1-2% category).  What I am saying is the best way I have found to currently prognosticate the number of future deaths attributable to the coronavirus in the United States is to look at the number of known cases two weeks before and multiply that number by 0.134.
   
• I understand the circularity error of my argument, using case numbers that I say I can not trust in my algorithm, but in these times, we have to do with the best we have. The one thing I do believe about the case numbers is this—they at least account for known cases and without anything else, it is the best we can use.

Now based upon all the points that I have made above; the following table shows my Grim Reaper’s future prognostication for coronavirus deaths in the United States for the next two weeks. 

Take my analysis for what it is worth because this is the best “seat of the pants” analysis that I can offer at this time.  We can hope I am wrong with my Grim Reaper prognostication because it very much looks like the Italy pattern on steroids. If you sum the above numbers with those already reported, the total U.S. coronavirus death count will be over 12,500 within two weeks.

At the moment I am writing this over 700 of the currently reported coronavirus cases in the United States are being reported as being in either serious or critical condition. Not to say that all of the serious and critical cases will end in death, but you may want to note that the above table projects 702 deaths over the next five days.

The coronavirus daily death rate I am projecting for April 4, two weeks from today, is more than seventy times the death rate reported yesterday. The death rate in my prognosis for two weeks out is four times the death rate reported by Italy yesterday. Is there any wonder why the medical world is crying out loud and clear for an increase in personal protective gear and equipment to manage the upcoming deluge?  

Because of expected future state by state policy adjustments and dicta, I currently see no reason to take my current prognostication analysis out further than two weeks. One thing for certain, without a miracle cure like the one projected this week from the self-proclaimed brilliant mind of our new leader, the coronavirus pandemic will still be with us two weeks from now.  As time moves along with new and hopefully better data, I will try to hone my analysis for you by correcting for errors in my current assumptions.   

So, until then, please stay healthy my friends and do all you physically can to falsify my analysis to the low side of my Grim Reaper prognostication.