Self-Impeachment?

I have been relieved from my duties as editor of my local neighborhood bulletin because of Internet woes. I was hoping to gain tsedakah (charity) points for my sins by the Day of Atonement by working for Sutton Area Community's Bulletin but the crash of Spectrum, formerly Time-Warner, got me fired.

I think Wall Street is whistling in the dark in the hope of a further interest rate cut. I doubt the Federal Reserve votes are there for another US cut given that the economy is not (yet) weak outside the farm sector, retailing and autos. The jobless level is at a 50-year low! And the China talks may be on again but now that we know Pres. Trump wants China to investigate the Bidens to get a deal done, I think the odds are that he will get what he wants. China is a police state and taps everyone's phone and internet.

The New Yorker called the Trump statement "self-impeachment."

That is not to say there are no risks. Of course, there are risks, starting with impeachment and winding up with bullets in Hong Kong, Baghdad, Damascus, and Riyadh. Brokers are facing a real earnings crunch, none more so that TD Ameritrade, where I have my account. I wrote yesterday about what the risks to American Depositary Receipts investors will be, and will follow up as the rules change.

Anyone who had problems getting yesterday's blog can read it at The Big Wave In Markets: Disruptive Technology.

*Microsoft (MSFT) today revealed that Iran hacked into email accounts of a major presidential campaign for 2020 but did not say which. It will come out. It may have been helped by the last round's hackers, Russia (not Ukraine despite what the President thinks.)

*Hong Kong shut down its subways for the weekend to stop demonstrations. It is not the moment to exit the market there as China ups the pressure. We are sticking with our remaining HK holdings,

but not adding new ones. They are Hang Seng, HSNGF, a bank controlled by HSBC which publishes the all-important daily stock chart; Hollysys Tech, HOLI, which builds railroads and their controls, both in China and in Belt & Roads countries. The Hang Seng index fell 3% today after a ban on masks was imposed. Wearing one gets you a year in jail. Whether it will remain in place by the time Hallowe'en rolls around is unknown.

Food & Drink

*Grupo Bimbo which is expanding globally is at risk but the FT seems to think that AMLO will be smart enough to change course as his plan goes south.

*Greencore is up over 4% on the latest proposal over the Irish border, which will allow farm goods to cross between Eire and Northern Ireland, while only imposing a duty on factory goods. GNCGF is listed in London but Irish.

*New US World Trade Organization approved tariffs against makers of drink in the European Union will hurt French wine-makers and, for now, Scotch whiskey distilleries. If the United Kingdom leaves the EU but remains in the Airbus consortium, the duty will remain. If whiskey becomes pricier Americans will quaff more beer, good news for Anheuser-Busch-Inbev (BUD, sold too soon.) But above all don't fall for Diageo which makes scotch.

*Thai hotel and restaurant stock Minor International, MNILY, is up 6.44% today.

Games

*Ditto for Dena Corp of Japan which makes games, up 2%. We sold after its woman founder was replaced. We bought other game stocks but sold Tencent later to put more money into its South African 31% owner, Naspers, for its European listing. TCEHY, NPSNY.

Drugs

*Eisai (ESALY) rose 1.8% on the new Japanese tax increase because meds do not pay this.

*GlaxoSmithKline of Britain is up 1% plus.

*Swiss Roche is up 2.25%.

*Zymeworks of Canada is back in the black by 1.75%, ZYME.

*With weekend risk today Teva least 1% but amazingly is still over my recent averaged down the price, which I misreported last weekend.

*Israeli Compugen rose 2.26%. CGEN is becoming a pick in health to replace troubled TEVA.

Energy

*We sold Canadian Cenovus too soon as it raised its divvie despite the tough environment for oilsands and its huge debt. But may not be able to follow through.

*Pembina Pipeline, PBA, is gaining and is safer, I think.

*We are up 1.7% with Algonquin Power & Utilities, the cross-border Canadian ute going for green energy. AQN.

*However our Indian green share Azure Power (AZRE) is lower because markets fear that new stimulus measures will not cover solar power.

*Mexichem appears to be eligible for some subsidies from the government and its stock is up 21.5% according to today. We sold too soon or the MXCHF stock is being misreported by TD Ameritrade.

*BP plc will have a new CEO after Bob Dudley steps down. I have no idea if this is significant. I like the 6.5% yield and I wish the new guy was not called Bernard Looney. BP shares gained 0.8% here.

*I was wrong yesterday saying Tomra might suffer because the Norwegian currency is so strong and because Norway is not cutting its exposure to oil and gas as much as expected earlier. In fact, TMRAY gained 9.35% today.

*Our Benitec Biopharma warrants from Down Under topped 4.89 cents today but the price rise was not as big as reported because the decimal place was wrong in the prior close. Pink sheets!

Banks and Brokers

*I got it wrong thinking TD Ameritrade would lose traction with free trading. In fact, the stock gained 2.33% today after losing a third Thurs. The theory is that if trading is free we will do more of it, which generates other money for the broker for information and for holding your cash. AMTD plans investor education boosts. With no free trades outside the US, this will hurt my budget but not my franchise.

*If I had to pick one share to go with today it would be Banco Santander at $3.81beaten down by interest rate cuts (which hurt banking margins), its UK franchise which means it has to put more capital into Britain under new rules, and its big stakes on Latin America. All these hurt SAN which continues to pay out as before, meaning its dividend is 7.7%! It fell today on old news about a Swiss bank, Lombard Odier, cutting its stake in the Spanish bank early this year. If it cuts its divvie, now to be paid 2x a year rather than quarterly, the payout will still be worth it. It also tendered successfully for its notes paying 4.45% which were due only in 2021, and those paying 3.7% due in 2022, in both cases cutting the debt by ~16%.

*Clydesdale & Yorkshire Banking Group is off some more, down to $1.35. I am adding to my IRA but not with the current pricing mess at my brokerage as I fear the numbers are wrong. CBBYF is to be bought when London is open or, indeed, in London.

Funds

*More weak hands in emerging markets funds. Fund of funds manager Lazard is liquidating its Lazard Emerging Markets Income fund, which has on $5.3 mn in assets.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno is not affected much by Pres. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's policy of building up Pemex. It rose to a new year's high today in US trading after the Financial Times ran a scathing article about AMLO's economic and oil policies. FBASF rose 10.07% to $1.475. It rents shops and offices to foreign firms in Mexico and just added a whole new layer of provincial real estate, financed by US$ borrowing. It pays a yield of 4.7%.

*Global Self-Storage, a former global fund converted by the owning family, a bonus stock, rose 4%.

*Aurora Investment Trust plc, a UK closed-end fund, gained 1.5% today because of some impact of the latest Boris proposal on Brexit, but I am not sure the numbers are correct.

*Gold failed to rise today after doing so for 3 days this week in spite of the dollar also rising.

Disclosure: None.

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Gary Anderson 4 years ago Contributor's comment

Interesting article. I am amused in considering that if what was happening in Hong Kong happened in NYC it would have been crushed long ago. Spanish banks sure are weak. So are German banks but Germany may be strong enough to bail out its banks. Not sure about Spain or Italy.

Harry Goldstein 4 years ago Member's comment

Why do you assume riots in the US would be quashed right away? I seem to recall the Rodney King riots lasted quite a long time

Gary Anderson 4 years ago Contributor's comment

I said NYC. I would bet disruptions around Wall Street would be crushed immediately and harshly. Remember Harry, location, location, location. :)

Harry Goldstein 4 years ago Member's comment

You might be right Gary, I'm not from NY so haven't seen riots there. But I don't really recall ever seeing riots forcibly put down in the US in quite some time.

Vivian Lewis 4 years ago Contributor's comment

The 1968 riots at Columbia University were allowed to continue until the students had fallen out among themselves over violence. I guess a campus is more obviously a place to support free speech than Wall Street but both of them need to be criticized from time to time for their own good. Columbia U is in Manhattan.

Gary Anderson 4 years ago Contributor's comment

That is interesting, Vivian. Eventually swat and teargas were used at UCSB, especially off campus in Isla Vista after the Bank of America was burned down. I was there so I witnessed it first hand. And no, I didn't do it. In Hong Kong many commercial structures are being destroyed, it appears.

Harry Goldstein 4 years ago Member's comment

Yes, but that was over 50 years ago. That's why I said I can't recall any riots being violently put down in the US in recent memory.