The Big Wave In Markets: Disruptive Technology
The big wave in markets lately has been disruptive technology, which we are all supposed to ride into the surf to easy riches. The theory has been buffeted lately in parts, with the failure of WeWork's (WE) initial public offering for innovative—and money-losing—office lets. Vaping turned out to be worse for your health than smoking ever was, so the disruption didn't carry enough weight.
And yesterday disruption came into the US brokerage industry, with Charles Schwab (SCHW) offering free trades and its closest competitors obliged to follow suit. In the end, the impact of these copycat offers is to further damage the gains from going global, following the snafu last week over China-origin American Depositary Receipts, which may or may not remain accessible. This is not turning into a disruptive tech move benefiting investors seeking to spread their risks, but into one making it harder for the globalists. As I pointed out yesterday, to make money, the market intermediaries will have to peddle the news and data they supply to investors and third parties, and brokerages will put more client money into low-ball interest accounts between trades. They will also make much more than in the past on options trades because they will know more than their clients about how the market is behaving.
In fact on the first day of free trading, the stock tickers on TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and Fidelity (FNF) are not showing news or prices.
In banking too, you can see how the fee-based currency and mortgage markets are squirming to find new profit centers as competition hits some of the old stalwarts. Insurance brokers and reinsurers are jiggling their books to create new profit centers. Today the ruling against Western European banks which offered Polish home-buyers mortgages in zloty fixed to the Swiss franc means that mortgages and other loans to businesses and others in high-risk currencies will become much more expensive, harming their recovery. Meanwhile fund manager Vanguard plans to help its owners (who own its funds) deal in foreign currency.
Disruptive technology in energy and vehicles is also proving a bit of a dud. It turns out that delivering food to your door doesn't pay for itself (except in India using very traditional meal delivery.) We still can get the bicycles to deliver our local Chinese eats, but we have to tip. And put up with them cyclists creating a sidewalk hazard as they rush to deliver the food hot on one-way streets. In more spacy areas the distances are too great to pay off.
Electric vehicles sound wonderful, but they still have to be subsidized. Self-driving cars sound like a great thing for seniors losing their sight and hearing and reflexes, but they add new road risks.
Nothing appeals so much as moving messaging, gaming, and games and gambling onto the internet, and nothing is quite as risky. First there is politics. A Chinese website will track dissident commentary. A Japanese gaming site can be hacked. Betting on the horses or football is never safe if done in at a bookie shop or local site, because bets usually fail. But online with the bookie knowing so much more than the punter, the failure rate will be hugely greater.
And then there is shopping. Our local Whole Foods Market, owned by Amazon (AMZN), is no longer the Whole Paychecks Market because it has had to cut prices to lure in on-line shoppers. But my informal survey of my neighbors' use of the service seems to shop that they are not buying fresh produce or real meat for themselves so much as canned or bagged feed for their pets, (dogs, cats, parrots, and other caged birds in my building) usually in huge amounts which mean this is a one-off.
Of course connectivity is key to internet operations, unfortunately a problem in over-built Manhattan where I am based. Web links and nodes run underground alongside sewage, electrical, and water lines. Cellphones go through the ether but are hard to use when there is an iron bridge or a high rise building in the way, frequently the case in midtown Manhattan where I hang out. When the water level or even the temperature underground rises, we have outages.
The most visible disruption is in retailing, where a wave of empty departments stores and bankruptcies is affecting the shops. But the on-line process can be overdone. The basics are easy but ultimately dressing for success, which is my goal, is dependent on the interaction of your body and the garment, your feet and the shoes, your figure and the underwear. I think that basics ranging from supplies to bedding, from furniture to pots, can well be sold on the web. But fashion? I doubt it.
Robots to invest your money sounds like a way to get impartial. But if you have ever dealt with a robot on the telephone over an internet or phone outage—as I have done repeatedly over the past few days-- you hate them
Drones, may or may not have blown up the Saudi oil installations, but which certainly represent a threat to airports across the East River from here, and down the Thames from our London base. During the UN General Assembly the river police hail ships sailing in our waters, and board them if need. But drones up in the sky fly on. Birds are trouble for planes, but you can scare off a Canada goose. What do you do with a drone aloft? If you shoot it down you will be sued.
Then there is information. I mentioned above that I am doing pro bono eciting work for my local area magazine. I spent hours on-line with tripadvisor to get permission to use copyright material quoted by one of its writers, about public parks. As a non-profit we are not like the usual suspects at tripadvisor who want to either promote a favorable review or squelch a negative one because we cannot pay. News is spread all over the web, true, false. In fact I want to quote one of the current stars of the internet, Rudi Giulani, who was quoted by Rabbi Rick Jacobs in a sermon delivered on the Day of Atonement last year at Central Synagogue. (I found the text in my prayer book.) The Rabbi said that in a Meet the Press interview on August 19, 2018, the former NY Mayor said “Truth isn't truth.”
Our former mayor was showing how hard it is to figure out what is going on in the 21st century, when you are telephoned by robots while others answer the phone when you report an internet outage. Human beings are hard to reach but in the end, it is humans whom you need to mobilize. Of course all my ranting against disruptive technology is not only because it doesn't necessarily pay off. It is also because I remember the 20th century when human beings dealt with problems. With all-too intermittent Internet in my office, I admit that I am lamenting the neiges d'antan, the snows of yesteryear.
More news from a few of our companies follows:
Robots
*Japanese Fanuc which makes factory robots fell back 2.5% overnight over slowing car sales. FANUY.
*However China's Hollysys Automation whose robots lay railroads rose over 3%. HOLI lost its mojo in Sept. but is creeping back up.
Green Stocks
*Goldman Sachs added Cosan, CZZ, to its buy list. The Brazilian firm refines sugar and ethanol and runs a chain of gas stations selling the latter under the Shell label in Latin America. The target price is $19.1 while the current price is $14.90 or so.
*Anhauser-Busch-Inbev (BUD) is not delivering its suds with Clydesdale horses any more but don't expect them to truck their beer in gasoline or diesel vehicles. They are testing BYD electric trucks from China which will be charged using solar power. We used to own both stocks but exited them. At least we don't back Constellation Brands which went flat because of its losses in Canadian cannabis. Drink is a tough business.
*Johnson Matthey, JMPLY, of Britain, was rated buy again by Deutsche Bank. JMAT rose in London. It refines and sells precious metals, notably platinum and palladium used to clean up auto exhaust.
*Grupo Bimbo (BMBOY), the Mexican baking multinational, bought a bread plant in Valencia, Spain from a local firm, Cerealto Siro Foods, writes Eduardo Garcia in Sentidocomun.co.mx. Neither the price nor the terms were disclosed. The two firms will run a bakery and sell products under the Hacendado brand using the Mercadono supermarket chain.
*Insiders in Britain this morning gobbled up beaten down Irish cement and aggregates maker CRH plc (CRH) today possibly because the way it is structured will not be affected by the new Boris border between Northern Ireland and Eire.
*German ute E.On SE, (EONGY), will partner with FuelCell Energy to offer customers fuel cell power. FCEL-Q rose 23% at the opening in the US before my internet went down.
Non-green News
*Vodafone in Italy is partnering with Ubitus Inc to launch a 5G cloud gaming service for VOD Italian customers. Of course if it pays off the product will be sold elsewhere.
*Canadian Bausch Health Cos (BHC) is suing Swiss Novartis (NVS) for 14 patent violations over its blockbuster irritable bowel syndrome drug Xifaxan. Both companies have a bad rep and BHC fell 9% yesterday on the news. It gained back 3.3% today. BHC is the former Valeant (VRX) which engaged in price gauging while NVS is famous for bribing medicos to prescribe its drugs.
*Bavarian Nordic of Denmark is enrolling patients with a rare disease, chrodoma, in phase II trials of its BN-Brachyury drug with radiation to treat this cancer of the skull and spine. BVNRY was sold but I still own some.
*Insiders also bought Clydesdale & Yorkshire Banking Group (CBBYF), the once and future Virgin Money (VRGDF), also traded in Britain but really owned in Australia and the Caribbean. It is facing problems over its forcing mortgage applicants to pay for payment protection plans, but also from the woes of another challenger bank in London, Metro. This happened early today when my internet was still up. London overall was down.
*Antofagasta (ANFGF), the Chilean copper miner, did not recover in UK trading at the opening. I cannot get later data.
*Japanese markets, which were spared the horrors of Weds., today recoiled back and the Nikkei lost 2%. This may or may not affect our shares as I cannot see their prices. The stronger yen scares off US investors.
*Teva (TEVA) fell in early trading but then recovered.
*In a possibly vain effort to get current prices for Fukui Computers, FKCIF of Japan, I put in a buy order at the improbably $12.60 price shown on the internet site of my broker, before it went down. Pink sheet stocks are still not posting prices even when the web works.
*Gold is back up I think because of the less than stellar non factory purchasing managers' index which came out early.
Disclosure: None.