S&P 500 declined, but the short-term bullish case is far from lost. There is a stark contrast to yesterday‘s tech earnings as opposed to Walmart or Snapchat lately – shifting focus to the current stage of the economy, which isn‘t that gloomy yet, regardless of the likely negative quarterly GDP figure coming tomorrow. Coupled with the subsequent Yellen press conference, we have a lot of not-a-recession talk to look forward for. After all, the greatest deterioration is in the leading components, and that takes time to seep into coincident indicators – late 2022 or early 2023 looks to be better timing for an officially declared recession. With the Fed doing a 75bp hike, and no more, the table is set for a relief rally later today, and for getting second thoughts tomorrow (as usual lately, one day after FOMC). 

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) – today‘s full-scale article features good 6 ones.
 

Gold, Silver, and Miners

Precious metals gave some bullish signals for the short term, but this bottoming process isn‘t over yet – especially in time isn‘t over yet.
 

Crude Oil

Crude oil didn‘t stage a genuine reversal – the turnaround is set to continue. Given how much time has passed since the $93 test, and how far oil stocks have traveled, the bullish case is clear beyond the medium term.
 

Copper

Copper sure has issues rising, but the willingness to try is there. More time is needed to enable such a move – the macroeconomic factors still speak against betting big on the long side here.
 

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Cryptos aren‘t making progress, and aren‘t following the simmering risk-on sentiment. As stated yesterday, increased focus on all that‘s wrong in the space, doesn‘t help, and the situation isn‘t likely to improve in the short run.

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