S&P 500 recovered from the inial bout of selling, and so did bonds. Whether the risk-on upswing stalls today or next week only, it still looks set to stall as the 50-day moving average would stop stock market bulls before the July Fed. Nothing too striking in the sectoral view yesterday – it‘s though positive that financials had a good day, and oil stocks also did a good job recovering from the early setback. But there is no escaping the earnings downgrades ahead, and the coming move lower can‘t be explained by the adjustment in the P/E ratio really. I am cautiously optimistic about yesterday‘s heavy volume in gold as the yellow metal defended $1,680 – waiting for miners to kick into a higher gear. More thoughts are reserved for premium subscribers.

Let‘s move right into the charts (all courtesy of Stockcharts.com) – today‘s full-scale article features good 6 ones.
 

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook

S&P 500 is looking fine, and the question remains whether it reverses from 4,020s or a bit higher – that‘s still my leading scenario at the moment. Take a careful look at market breadth next – whether the positive developments discussed in the opening part of today‘s analysis, get stronger or not.
 

Credit Markets

HYG is still leaning the bullish way and hasn‘t run out of steam yet. The dollar being unable to keep yesterday‘s modest gains, played a role. Bond markets are likely to stall today, and it would be indicative of whether HYG makes further progress or not.
 

Bitcoin and Ethereum

Cryptos want to rise, and the weekend ahead looks quite fine, which is in line with the idea that stocks wouldn‘t roll over to the downside sharply today.

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