Dear Fellow Expat:

Greetings from the Senator Theater in Baltimore.

The last two times I’ve been to this theater … both films featured my brother in them. The first is the John Waters film “A Dirty Shame,” and the second is Lance’s film “Lie Q,” which is based loosely on me.

With my daughter and wife in Florida, I have little to do. I’ve taken the dogs for long walks, worked out repeatedly, and eaten a lot of meat.

Today, I decided to go to the movies. I chose a film with a 50% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. This is good because I will either like it… or hate it. I will sit here and finish the rest of my work while… Trap plays to a theater audience of twelve.

 

 

As we blast through the previews, I’ve remembered a few things: First, we don’t need another Alien movie… but a new Beetlejuice movie?

I’m on board. It’s good to see Katherine O’Hara and Michael Keaton together…

 

Let’s Do the Dirty Work Before the Previews

It’s been a fast… but long week. As I noted last week, Commodity Trading Advisers were poised to start dumping stocks.

We had a pre-FOMC run-up (an anomaly) and then a horrible Thursday-Friday dump, thanks to a fake-out that briefly brought us into positive momentum.

It produced a classic rug pull… and it looks like the risk selloff will flow into Monday as foreign markets catch up to the recession concerns shared in the U.S. and Europe. Tack on a horrible selloff in Japan, and we’re watching the West face pressure.

And then there’s tech. Warren Buffett surprisingly dumped 50% of Berkshire’s massive position in Apple (AAPL). The speculation is that Buffett’s calling the top in tech could be a gut reaction to the prospective pivot ahead by the Fed. Either way, we’ll dig into what makes Apple such a special company tomorrow… and remember that even if he sold half of his Apple, Berkshire still owns more than $45 billion… in Apple.

 

Event of the Week: AI In Focus

The United States Patent and Trademark Office USPTO) will host a roundtable on Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology and Non-Infringing Level (NIL) protections.

This is all very legal… but it will shape policy and greatly impact investment in the AI space in the years ahead. Given AI's rapid advancement and integration in various sectors, policymakers are trying to figure out how to protect and regulate this technology. And it must all happen while protecting patents.

They want to ensure that innovations can continue without legal impediments while protecting the rights of original inventors and creators. Imagine that we have a breakout new AI program or platform, and then it’s called back and held up in court for five years because someone argues that there’s been a massive patent breach.

As investors, we must pay attention to events like this.

The emerging policies and guidelines can affect the valuation and future prospects of companies involved in AI technology. Clear policies can reduce uncertainty and risk associated with IP disputes, leading to increased investment.

However, restrictive policies could hinder innovation or redirect investment to more favorable jurisdictions, whether it’s states or other nations.

 

Monday, August 5, 2024

Event: Carlyle Group (CG) Earnings, “Eye the Squeeze” Begins

Republic Risk: There will be much more volatility in the weeks ahead. But we start looking for “The Squeeze,” with put/call ratios moving much higher and stocks and indices falling under key support levels. At some point, the squeeze will start, and many people who are shorting will get caught off guard. That’s by design – and one of the core reasons why we don’t short in this market. I don’t have the stomach to wake up and watch the market punish me as an options trader when I can’t do anything or close the position until 9:30 am. It’s just not worth it, and it’s why you should instead follow the MAC-D for directions on the SPY and the RSI/MFI as tools to seek oversold stocks. Remember, the SPY tends to squeeze hard after reaching oversold levels (30) on the Relative Strength Index and (20) on the Money Flow Index simultaneously.

Meanwhile, Carlyle Group reports earnings. I only care because David Rubenstein is now the sole owner of the Orioles, and I would have liked if he’d taken some of that sweet private equity money and applied for a trade in Blake Snell.

 

Tuesday, August 6, 2024

Event: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) earnings

Republic Risk: This has been a massive punch in the face for AI stocks. And Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been in a freefall since Elon Musk said the company was a supplier. Welp. Watching this pullback and seeing its key support levels break down is rather stunning. Wall Street’s still giddily projecting a $1,000 price target – 50% from this pullback level. Options are so volatile right now that the market is anticipating a 10% move on the stock next week. I’m buying at $500… and then again down around $300 if it gets there.

 

Wednesday, August 7, 2024

Event: McKesson (MKC), Walt Disney (DIS), CVS Health earnings

Republic Risk: A bunch of names with different reasons to follow. One, someone asked me to profile McKesson the other day. It’s in the queue.

While I was visiting the doctor, a wheelchair by the front entrance was tipped over on its side. It said “McKesson” on the back of it. All I could think was that there had been a terrible accident in that doorway… or a “Miracle.”

Walt Disney is a company I skipped today in the movies, turning to whatever M. Night Shamalhahalala uses to distribute movies. I still wait patiently for this company to spin off ESPN and stop making terrible movies that no one likes. They ruined Star Wars. They’ll keep that up.

Finally, CVS Health (CVS) is holding right at $59. I wonder if a good earnings report might give Walgreens (WBA) some life. I'm not sure how no activist has pushed Walgreens harder. It’s just a matter of time before WBA slashes that dividend.

Good riddance.

 

Thursday, August 8,  2024

Event: Wild Options Trading on Sweetgreen (SG)

Republic Risk: I drove past a Sweetgreen today. Is it a grocery store? A tea shop? How is this a public company? Wait, it’s a restaurant… with those margins? No.. no.. come on. No. Why is this public? It’s up 130% this year… but down 50% all time. Bombs away if this market keeps this behavior up.

Friday, August 9, 2024

Event: Nasdaq Short Report

Republic Risk: This report will be very interesting since the data is from this Tuesday. I wish we knew the numbers on Tuesday because these are the most likely to squeeze when we get calm. There’s not much data this week that could propel too much action. The CPI doesn’t follow until next week. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see some mid-week relief – and the names on that short report are the best performers on Wednesday and Thursday…

 

Finally

The film I saw today was M. Night Shyamalan’s “Trap” which just came out.

I want to warn you… Stop now if you don’t want any “semi” spoilers…

But who are we kidding… are you really going to see this movie after he made that dreadful film Lady in the Water?

Okay, let’s get to the review of M. Night Sugarbread’s new movie.

I just wanted to see a movie today that wasn’t a remake, a reboot, or a triple sequel…

So, I went into this knowing that the Rotten Tomatoes was 50%. Hit or miss.

Trap is billed as “What if Silence of the Lambs happened at a Taylor Swift concert?”

Except – that’s not what it is. It feels more like “What if the baby in Baby’s Day Out was a fugitive from the law… and he stumbles into an Arianna Grande rehearsal.

The pop singer in the film is M. Night Shamblefire’s real daughter.

The film contains a 60-minute video concert (105-minute run time) of his daughter (called Lady Raven for some reason) singing.

This has all the feel of Will Smith making movies for his kids. M. Night Shakercomp’s daughter is fine in it. Despite her role in dealing with a serial killer, she shows all the heart and emotion as a real-life pop singer (so, very little emotion… to the point that it feels natural.)

The lead, Josh Hartnett, is well cast for this movie. The police are chasing him, trying to trap him in a concert for reasons lazily “explained through dialogue.”

Trap’s plot is an excellent concept, though. All the cops and the FBI surround the venue, and there’s no way out. But to help explain how he might be able to escape, it’s done so through dialogue in a very lazy and almost offensive way to the audience.

Armed with intel that he shouldn’t have, he sparks a plan. But he’s a bit like the baby in the construction site, where everything keeps happening perfectly for him. It almost feels like too tight of an edit.

There’s no real capacity to showcase a madman’s ability to adapt or think.

For a film called “Trap,” – the police and FBI are utterly inept…

Everything is dialogue-driven much later to explain things. So, you never get those Hannibal Lecter moments, and this is about as much of a Cat and Mouse movie as… I don’t know… pick a baseball movie. And when we need a back story – rather than using small historical cuts like M. Night Sackleboom is known for… he falls back on dialogue, which is lazy.

It reminds me of Operation Flagship, an event where police sent hundreds of Redskins tickets to known criminals in 1985 and arrested them when they showed up at the game. That premise – Operation Flagship - would have been a better movie. 

There are obvious references to Psycho, the Shining, Saw, and Scream. And M. Night Snagglepuss plays a critical role as a Deus Ex Machina character/plot device driver in the middle of the film.

You know what could have been cool? If they had sent a bunch of people dressed like police and the FBI into the movie theater just to walk around really quick and freak the audience out, then again… the odds are that four or five people might have jumped up from their seats and ran for the exits…

Ultimately, I give this movie – Two Soggy  Hard Shell Chipotle Tacos.

 

It could have been a lot better, but I think M. Night Shawshank Redemption was more interested in letting his daughter sing at a concert than in putting together a convincing thriller.

Thank you for coming to my film review.

Stay positive.

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