Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in June 2023 is $81,843, an increase of $389 (or 0.48%) from the initial estimate of $81,454 in May 2023.

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Adjusted for inflation, the month-over-month increase is $116 over May 2023's revised estimate of $81,727 in terms of constant June 2023 U.S. dollars. While inflation remained muted in June 2023, it still eroded 70% of the nominal increase in median household income from the previous month. June 2023's estimate also remains below December 2022's inflation adjusted peak of $81,909, marking the first half of 2023 as one of relative stagnation for the real purchasing power of a typical American household.

The latest update to Political Calculations' chart tracking Median Household Income in the 21st Century shows the nominal (red) and inflation-adjusted (blue) trends for median household income in the United States from January 2000 through June 2023 The inflation-adjusted figures are presented in terms of constant June 2023 U.S. dollars.

With nominal median household income trending upward in an environment with muted inflation however, it's quite possible we'll see real gains for the typical American household when the data for July 2023 becomes available.

Analyst's Notes

The BEA made very minor adjustments to its aggregate income estimates for the months of April 2023 (+0.06%) and May 2023 (+0.08%).

If you're curious how we generate our estimates of median household income, we last updated our methodology in March 2022 following a much more substantial revision of aggregate income data. We also periodically compare our estimates with others.

References

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Population. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 July 2023. Accessed: 28 July 2023.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Table 2.6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Monthly, Personal Income and Outlays, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly, Middle of Month. Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 28 July 2023. Accessed: 28 July 2023.

U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers - (CPI-U), U.S. City Average, All Items, 1982-84=100. [Online Database (via Federal Reserve Economic Data)]. Last Updated: 12 July 2023. Accessed: 12 July 2023.

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