'Raising the stakes'  reasonably describes the backdrop surrounding stocks as well as longer range market prospects, fiscal conditions, geopolitical (most obvious China-Taiwan) threats, Oil prices, Debt, and even COVID's evolution.

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The answers or resolutions to any of these are in-flux and extremely variable. That includes a rise in skepticism (very reasonable to grasp) about vaccines, as fully understandable when you hear questions sidestepped by the 'experts' regarding 'breakthrough' cases of media families who are fully-vaccinated and have been dutifully repeating the 'conventional guidelines' for months. That's not to suggest vaccines don't help, just that we need better vaccines.

Executive summary:

• Vermont, the most-vaccinated state in the Union, now has the highest of all states in terms of 'current cases' of COVID, so vaccines wane when (?).

• Globally the story is trending similarly: Singapore has been easing social restrictions, from pandemic to endemic state, after achieving over 80% vaccination compliance, nonetheless, the death toll among the elderly are rising steeply, today, over 3000 cases, those were thought behind, out of these 3000 plus people, 630 are elderly, so the majority are younger.

• This matters, because the near-open status of many aspects of society at this point suggest that if waning expands drastically, so will reticence by a concerned person to mingle, Biden sort of said 'what order' about his 100 person mandate, which either means forgot or perhaps backing-off a bit.

• Singapore contradicts media reports of COVID burning-out in Asia, and as a bit of a technology hub itself, is important for signs of COVID elsewhere in Asia, hence can be a warning sign if they're facing yet-another wave.

• Just a couple remarks on Sorrento (SRNE): first it did turnaround and recover, not only that, but for the moment looks like shorts stopped suppressing.

• To further-clarify my suspicions over prior months related to statements or even 'releases' that stated things, like 25 million 'authorized' shipments of Covistix to Mexico, and I repeatedly said 'authorized is not saying sold' as of that moment, sort of a twist of words, so I didn't like such phrasing.

• So I hope they're actually selling CoviStix, and I hope they report specific distributors and outlets (so far it's not been seen other than on their 'draft' website etc.), although the lady I'd spoke with claimed they are making, selling and shipping, that's all I know (promised follow-up didn't occur).

• Back to the point of why we need better vaccines and treatments, and the market: if there's COVID resurgence we won't be back to last year's ordeal, but certainly it won't speed-up supply chain issues resolution, nor help the restaurants loosing money, nor enliven business travel segment.

• Clearly such an evolution would inhibit a lot of companies delivering solid earnings gains in 2022, or at least moderate their forward guidance.

• All that, much less a failure in Washington to at least temporarily sort-out the fiscal issues, of course could become the catalyst to explain the next phase of S&P decline, after this projected rebound runs its course.

• Clearly how far down depends what happens in the world, with markets having a strange habit of having things get increasingly 'dark' before the lows, and then suddenly a selling climax occurs and the backdrop seems to stay 'dim' for awhile (keeping buyers at-bay who by-then are negative), and that sets-up the brighter times ahead (again if all goes quite well).

• Looks like someone agreed with us about AEHR Test Systems, yes the stock dipped just under 12 (filling the gap) and moved up to shy of 14 (AEHR).

• AEHR President & CEO Gayn Erickson reportedly sold about 200,000 shares (average price of $14.19), for proceeds near 3 million, so now we know where the selling came from, and so far it was well-absorbed, and he tends to sell periodically at any price, previously at 7 and once near 5, and personally retains (just estimating) about half a million shares.

• Also, what I see posted is that Collaborative Holdings Fund took a 5% stake in AEHR. (It's an investment manager saying focused on disruptive technology companies.) I'm not sure AEHR is disruptive unless seriously upping the standards for reliably testing semiconductors/silicon carbide.

• Let me note that 'Collaborative' is primarily a 'venture capital' firm or fund, that typically seems to invest in start-up or nascent companies, whereas for them AEHR is a departure since it's already fairly well-established (as best I can ascertain they had no holdings in this prior to the new filing), I have no idea of their goals (like combining with another held venture).

• I again emphasize that although I view AEHR less speculatively than any biotech basically, they do have competitors, so as usual the problem with technology 'is' technology, if they continue capturing key contracts, then it isn't exactly 'sky's the limit' like finding a cure for cancer, but promising.

• By the way Palantir (PLTR) got a key U.S. Army data contract and jumped on it, if that is a sign of an endorsement that drives businesses to their software it probably helps the shares move to higher levels.

• Years ago I focused almost entirely on the Indexes alone for awhile, over time it became necessary to anticipate and recognize the splitting off by a handful of stocks that constituted the influence on S&P and NDX mostly.

• While trying to focus on more issues, the risks of concentrating too much on any single stock are evident, but sometimes seems necessary where speculation, suspected manipulation, or just craziness surrounds it.

• But, for the most part, when stocks or Indexes become a circus, I think it best avoiding the Center Ring of the circus, doing so creates its threats if like this year, the entire market seems to hang-in the balance led by half a dozen stocks, in this bifurcated situation, it tough being a 'ringmaster'.

Today (Tuesday) Senator Warren doubled-down on attacking Fed Chairman Powell. She is wrong about his efforts promoting weakness, right about the banks avoiding certain risks by virtue of liquidity pumped in, and we do not agree that the Fed Chairman himself is responsible for putting the Nation at a grave financial risk.

As to the guidelines allowing Fed officials to trade the market, yes that's bad. I know there's been moves to ban stock trading, or ownership, at certain levels. A part of corruption can sure include activities in Congress and the Districts. I guess another perspective would be she's the 'pot calling the kettle beige'. (I didn't intend a reference to the 'Beige (Tan) Book' at the Fed... aha.)

Let me suggest that of course I disdain the heavy borrowing beyond anyone's common sense, and wish better education of those who replaced logic with a biased political agenda as contrasted to living within our means as a society. I don't expect the Senator to switch from her blame of 'financial institutions' and the Fed, but it's possible some are looking for sacrificial lambs to throw under the bus (so to speak).. partially to avoid assuming responsibility of.. Congress.

Lest I forget China, the Golden Week holiday will end, their markets will open, there's no solution regarding supporting Taiwan, and there's threats ongoing, of course, in Washington, regarding our financial Default risk, not ability to pay by one way or another. The idea that Treasury has asked the U.S. Mint to just get ready to 'mint' a Trillion Dollar platinum coin is so ludicrous it's likely real.

An economic slowdown concurrently with a snugging-up of monetary policy, is typically what happens after an excessive period of stimulus and liquidity. The ultra-low yields elsewhere drove more Americans into stocks than ever before and that itself is a risk. Stocks like Microsoft are solid, will be around forever, don't have some of the issues others have, but it never got 'as overvalued' as a majority did. Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) (or Amazon) are at various inflated stages. But Microsoft is more stable especially with Azure, competing with AWS from Amazon, which is more important than most Amazon (AMZN) holders likely realize.

Microsoft (MSFT) may be the most important company, but Apple may be the key just a bit more from the market's perspective (largest cap in the S&P). Its forward PE is estimated at over 30, so like others, Microsoft isn't bargain day either. So that means you don't have the margin of safety we had over a year ago, at or coming-off the March 2020 lows, and it's difficult to suggest chasing any of the big-cap winners not only on this dip (which is really minimal) but after that initial thrust off the lows. Incidentally history shows that's when the best gains are made, by being a contrarian well into panic sell-offs.