Stocks picked-up steam  late in the session, very nicely complying with our preferred pattern, which was defensive early to keep the skepticism going, to yield to upside as the day progressed.

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How long this persists is very dependent on a variety of internal or existential events, some financial and a couple geopolitical. So while that's hard to say it matters, as to whether this is 'just' a forecast 'B' wave really in an 'A-B-C' type of overall decline, or potentially something more favorable for investors.

Also, a couple relatively calming comments by Fed speakers today, leads me to think they do indeed grasp how the probable tsunami of COVID in China will continue inhibiting the supply-chain, resulting in persistently higher price from their exports, so thus 'our' central bank policies won't do much to change that.

If that contains the Fed's zeal, that's good. But for now the focus remains the S&P (SPX) itself, and the extent (or not) that it runs into resistance just above here. I have indicated the area around S&P 4600 was a forthcoming battleground.

Speaking of 'battlegrounds', there was apparently no progress over Ukraine in today's phone calls between Sec'y. Blinkin and Russia's Foreign Minister. So the tension persists, and Russia is moving more forces into Belarus. Notably this was a day the FBI Director chose to highlights China as a bigger threat. It is true with regard to dangers and especially IP theft, and sobering on the eve of the Olympics. Since nothing specific new, that's why timing's curious.

More below, but basically the trend is up as projected short-term, more clearly depends on events. Certainly there's pushback worries related to the Fed, but even the Fed guys are trying to dampen concerns they'll break the economy.

Also, you have a serious COVID problem in China .. nobody wants to address it much as the Olympics loom, but realistically part of the reason cleaner air is noticed isn't just mandated restrictions for sports, but because of containment of the population's movements, due to COVID. Their vaccine is mediocre and it is not possible to resolve in the very short-term. Hence the result is inflation of prices there, and here, no resolution to much of the supply-chain challenge as well as 'stagflationary' implications here in the U.S. The tight labor picture will reflect that too when numbers come out.

Also late today Russia is 'accusing' Ukraine of using a drone to kill one of their separatist fighters. Well he was in Ukraine, not Russia. But this can be a kind of false-flag claim that leads to more, and might be a trial balloon for that. No balloons in Syria, but there's been a big battle where about 1000 ISIS got out of prison, killed maybe 40 or 50 guards and SDS, and were suppressed by a combined force of SDS and US Army brought in. About 500 ISIS killed and it's about 400 that are reported 'missing'. Point is a resurgence of ISIS attempt is occurring, and it's not (to my knowledge) hit mainstream media other than the story about a woman who organized a brigade of terrorists. Testy times.

Energy led the charge again today, and that's essential of course. You're not going to get meaningful rallies very often without Oil and to a lesser degree at least a couple big Financials participating.

Starting last week, in calling the washout low and alternating chaos, I focused on the 'last hour' of trade, which usually is just squaring. Late strength shows not just the willingness to hold overnight, but some short-covering by traders who sort of surrendered (today was such a day) when nothing got going in the direction they wanted (lower) so they surrender and step-aside, prices rise.

Meanwhile you have stocks like Starbucks under pressure due to China, and it is only reasonable to presume they would have lower retail sales during the incredible ongoing shutdown(s) in many Chinese cities. Amazing that Luckin Coffee rallied, you'd think they offer a hot delivery service?

And you have PayPal (PYPL), which might be hit by cross-border payment issues but generally the miss is a surprise to the Street (we have never owned PayPal). I do think that's a damper on Financials, though haven't delved into it. AMD for sure did well, so did Alphabet (GOOGL), and there are not big surprises. On the PayPal 'miss'. Square is getting hit after-market, another we don't follow. UPS and FedEx are up late today, but they were expected to beat estimates (UPS, FDX, AMD).

AMD beat bigger than I'd have thought, delighted. Talking about 21 Billion in sales and considerably above earnings expectations. As usual 'Lisa Sue' the CEO will make the financial TV rounds and talk things up tomorrow. Shares up 13 today, fine by us. We sold portions at higher levels and retain most, as I've often mentioned. Long from ~17 and ultimately maybe ~200 or so. No action's needed, but there's nothing not to like here, and may help Semiconductors at least, or offset some negativity PayPal and Starbucks might generate.

One we do follow is Canoo (GOEV), which really broke with the market early this year as Walmart (WMT) at CES announced their deal for 5000 EV delivery vans from our GM, which we prefer less than Ford (F), but also liked since General Motors (GM) was in the 30's. But 5000 is hardly enough for their 11,000 stores. That decline gave a really good 'speculative' entry point, along with similar entry spots for others.

We speculate in the updated accompanying map where one plant might go, of course the larger one will be in Oklahoma a year later. The first micro-factory, or whatever one terms it, is Bentonville, and appears to be a leased building. It is unknown whether equipment is there, or if that's correct. Nothing stated.

Ford will be spending about 20 billion or more 'reorganizing' their business for EV. Fine. We are in Ford as our conservative establish EV play, and Canoo as the speculative underdog that might surprise if they can properly execute.

(There's a reason I'm highlighting Canoo a bit. On the 24th of this month they are holding a 'parts and suppliers' networking gathering in Michigan. During the Presentation to start it, they will outline more of their strategy and plans, so it is reasonable to expect the shares to be stable-to-firm ahead of that.)

With poor guidance from PayPal or so on very much highlighting my warnings about China (excessive or not), this could impact Visa (V), MasterCard (MA) or more, even if not justified. So 'in-sympathy' you could have some early Wednesday pressures, and then another try at the upside. Keep in mind we're not looking for a significant upside extension in the S&P, although a few smaller stocks it seems will do better. I sometimes think they encouragement by some pundits to buy expensive stocks making money, is akin to telling investors to buy high and risk selling low. It's hard enough as it is, without chasing overextended or theme stocks that attract a majority of 'buy strength' types, who then sell all at the same time too, which is what makes that so dangerous in this market.