Glimmers of hope  are not 'yet' overwhelmed by monetary policy snugging, as the market 'for now' has tailwinds that justified buying recent speculations during purges, expecting some sort of late-year surge, even if unsustainable.

But all these normal rebounds and seasonal 'winds' can be blown-away if we continue to see handling of the pandemic as gritty as a sandstorm. There may be an imminent approval of the 'pills' for COVID, but government won't focus a lot on it, just as a 'tool in the toolbox', lest many substitute that for vaccines.

We've been 'clear about the lack of clarity' from officials about COVID for nearly two years. And while expedited plans from The White House are welcome, of course the numbers mentioned are too little / too late, although we gather that may be the best they can do as far as speed. Personally I suspect not so, as a few companies (Sorrento (SRNE) is one of them) have been stonewalled on 'tests', or at minimum have been asked for more information periodically and not in a fast-track equivalent manner.

Dr. Osterhome is calling for a 'blizzard of COVID' for the next few weeks. He's not wrong, Dr. Spencer of Columbia concurs, and this is going to be rough. If the FDA 'tomorrow' approves the Merck (MRK) and Pfizer (PFE) pills that won't resolve this situation instantly, and we're going to have repercussions of gatherings over the holidays regardless, unfortunately. Big nationwide surge..just starting.

The S&P (SPX) will likely sell-off in the morning and then bounce, but nothing is inscribed in stone for the moment, other than a majority seem to be ignoring precautions, perhaps 'masking', but little if any social distancing at the same time as the virus spreads rapidly. Hopefully mild, but the old saying 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best' should apply more than we see.

The S&P has had an unusual rally pattern throughout the year, forewarned for that matter, as covering distribution and relying on buybacks in the mega-caps which was a continuation even from the prior year. We urged partial sales with the year' first rally, and felt there was too much complacency throughout.

Now you have a rebound anticipated ('Hail Mary' or not) from just above rising trend patterns. But those are high level trend lines. Our idea has been 'Santa Claus' (ridiculous but that's what people call it) rally, but sustainability really is in-doubt, especially if it carries into the new year.

With so many 'cheerleaders' bullish when they should have been cautious for a few months now, it's no wonder they turn-turtle and freaked days ago, then either cheerlead immediately for higher prices, now that we bounced, or for a very flip-flop oriented segment of them, suggest absolute horror near-at-hand.

Prospects are for neither euphoria nor despair, but not necessarily big rallies. The market soured on a lot of former growth stocks, and it's done that all year by the way, again under-cover of a strong superficial S&P (SPY) and NDX/QQQ etc. Some areas are actually strong like Semiconductors (SMH), and Micron (MU) helped a bit to drive home that important detail yesterday. Micron historically is volatile.

What I do acknowledge is the confusion and uncertainty which will prevail not because of the Fed, not because of earnings, but upon approval of new drugs or vaccines. But to be entirely candid once again, it depends on confidence in our lives and society, not merely speeches by politicians or even more testing for COVID. What matters is getting through COVID / Omicron, and doing so with low mortality and a majority of cases being mild.

This all matters, thus so much for any ideas COVID wasn't the key influence of this market. We must resolve this, then we worry about Fed monetary policy.

I want to share one thing: Tuesday I had an 'annual physical' (obviously focused a lot on my post-COVID experiences, aches and pains). One thing surprised me: my physician suggested that I 'not' get the booster yet, even though it's timing would normally suggest it. He wasn't very specific (I had minor fever and rapid heart beat from the first two Pfizer jabs), but when I asked if he wanted me to wait for the next generation of booster/vaccine if it comes in January/February he said 'yes'.