Wall Street questioning of their prior analysis, dominates bull/bear debates at the moment, while the S&P is basically on-hold ahead of the FOMC meet, a key one more for the guidance than the widely-expected 75 bp Funds hike.

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Besides the conflicting reports of Gas transmission (or claims of missing parts for the high pressure turbines) from Russia (which says it's a reliable supplier of European 'energy security') mostly to Germany, you have threats outlining a (fairly assumed) goal of Russia to overthrown Ukraine's Zelensky regime, as well as discussions of the inevitability of 'recession' in the USA or not.

 Though there's now 'consensus' on whether we're going to have a recession, I still believe we're already in one, hence it's inevitable because it's already a fact. But yes, America's society is bifurcated and definitely affects some more than a slew of others (the majority that struggle month-to-month). It's slightly odd to hear permabears or 'doom & gloom' types act as if something new has occurred with spending, Retail disappointment or even the Dallas Fed remark about how soft things are. If anything the comments from Dallas suggest that indeed we are already 'in' recession as I've suggested, since that's really an Oil state that is doing better than most in this mixed economic backdrop.

Things may not get much worse for the already-struggling crowd, the political aspects will get discussed more, but realistically Oil prices matter more than a favorable spending trend in Washington. Plus that relates to the war. Also we have a fairly 'appeasing' Administration in a sense, because the response to a forthcoming planned trip by Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan (checking on her money invested in semiconductor stocks some cynically say) was for a White House response being 'the military advises she might be advised not to go to Taiwan' instead of 'our leaders of either Party will travel where and when determined in Washington, not Beijing, and butt-out of our own diplomatic protocols' (or to that direction). Regardless of one's feelings about Nancy, bowing to China for this, would have ripple effects impeding future visits to Taipei by Americans.

It may have political overtones, but former Sec'y. of State Pompeo tweeting his willingness to join her on such a trip, actually is the right bipartisan tone. Of course what happens is possibly nothing, since Presidents Biden and Xi apparently are going to talk later this week, and that's the political angle, while I do actually prefer China and the USA to avoid the obvious confrontational tone Beijing has been strutting again.

Meanwhile the big question is 'which Jerome Powell' will show up Wednesday with the News Conference again this time (even more than usual) be a key to all the perceptions about the Fed's future course, and whether S&P priced-in the many concerns before our low in June, while the Fed 'might' be reaching into the neutral rate zone.

Many ongoing conflicting views of analysts, are dissected pundits suggesting continuing recovery, or resumption of 'bear market'. Perhaps neither defines a near-term period, that we've considered to be (and is) 'turbulent or oscillating', hence sort of 'range-bound' for awhile, with individual stocks behaving more or less indecisively except where there is material news of progress or failure. This is all in a defensive limbo ahead of the FOMC. The late-day Retail report tends to amplify factors that could help tilt the Fed away from too hawkish.

In-sum: 

The focus on a handful of mega-cap (mostly tech) businesses, does remind us a bit of the distribution of last year (contributing to the strong S&P and NDX), while the majority of companies are doing so-so at best for now.

People are on their guard so to say, but were too guarded a month ago before a seasonal rebound we outlined. Of course the debate can't be answered at this point about an upward extension without interruption, because best buys were at the depths of despair last month, with things more equivocal for now.

Speaking of the near-term, there's a lot of focus on Apple, and it matters. But I look at their product rollout schedule, the shutdowns in China (they end as a given area seems clear of COVID, with now a traffic-light-like regional signal for COVID risk), and the natural stream of slowing Q3 business ahead of iPhone 14 and some analysts incorrectly will overplay any downside attributed to that as reflecting grander problems. There are other issues, but this flow is normal.

Really serious lower guidance by Walmart (talking of growth but off 12% or more relative to prior guidance) hit after the Bell, so that hit Costco as well and like the entire Retail sector in the morning. Target will be clobbered too.

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