Market Briefing For Tuesday, Dec. 21

Snowstorms don't have to be blizzards, as severity can vary. This market recently was more akin to a 'ground blizzard', where snow is lifted, falling and more or less blowing around (the trading swings of the past couple weeks).

group of animal gathered on field covered with snow

Unsplash

Monday's response to 'everything happened at once' (so it seemed) was more akin to a severe snowstorm sustaining the continuation pattern of decline, sort of drifting by mega-caps that are significantly off their yearly highs, while lots of the small-caps eroded by pennies, not the major dollar losses of big-caps.

The news backdrop hit an already-cornered S&P (inflation, Davos cancelled, Build Back Better in trouble, Fed monetary policy a day late and a dollar short if they wanted to impede 'prior' fast rising growth), including of course COVID Omicron leading the pack (SPX). As mentioned before the weekend, reminiscent a bit to 2018 as we made a short-term Christmas Eve washout low. However in some ways there is no precedent for this exact combination of ingredients.

It is not even clear whether big-freak inflation was still ramping-up or spiking based on wages already having had their impact, food too, and with reduced stimulus ahead. It might be mentioned that even Oil has been pulling back as I gleaned from the low 80's, disputing Goldman and others looking for 100+ in absence of war with Iran, China invading Taiwan, or other existential event (OIL).

Also that's not necessarily a bad thing, especially since if COVID's resurgence via Omicron proves to be a 'panic' that doesn't have the follow-through they're talking about. For months I've proclaimed the solution's 'antiviral pills' not the vaccines, which I saw as 'mostly' (side effects) helpful, but mediocre and not a broad spectrum (as in multiple variants) approach. Whereas Pfizer's (PFE) pill isn't a panacea of preventing symptoms but seems seriously effective in protecting against severe disease. Merck's (MRK) a bit less so, but also helpful.

Both of these should have had EUA's by now, but will soon. And 'that' is what will relieve the stock market's and society's angina. And hence shame on FDA for a business-as-usual approach in not approving EUA for Pfizer any quicker it seems than for Sorrento's (SRNE) Covi-Stix test (amended filing was in October).

I am not exactly suggesting these 'as solutions' for COVID, but at minimum will buy time for a 'Omicron specific' or essential broader-spectrum antiviral drug. I have actually argued this for some time, and unfortunately bureaucrats either have vested interests, or are so afraid of approving something harmful they in a sense act like they're in 'the blizzard', and simply 'freeze'. While they delay, people are getting sick and even dying, and this is incredible and all they do is further depress people by ramping up tough rhetoric, not ramping approvals.

One irony today comes from South Africa: their COVID Advisory Committee is recommending the country 'stop' all tracing and quarantining of new cases. It is unclear whether that's because of massive numbers of infected people, or a bit of realization most cases are very mild, or both.

In a sense begs a question ahead of our President's (presumably grim speech tomorrow), as to whether much of the 'recent' angina over Omicron is indeed warranted by raw case numbers at the same time absence of heavy numbers of serious cases says: viral theater is occurring. However, some cities have sizeable increased in hospitalization, but our data isn't differentiating 'Delta' as the cause of those cases, with little data to cull-out the actual Omicron cases.

Even more puzzling: the U.K. is contemplating shutting-down travel 'in or out' of Great Britain effective December 27th, between Christmas and New Years. If the rest of the world wasn't also struggling with Omicron's surge, I'd ponder what the point is of not letting their citizens 'out', while understanding visitors being restricted. In this case it sounds like another boondoggle, and might be a reason why Brits, and many on the Continent, are frustrated or protesting.

In-sum: 

All the 'cold front' headwinds blew-in together, and impacted Indexes far more than smaller stocks. Of course travel and related stocks got battered more, but they should. Most responsible people have cancelled everything for a few more weeks, despite hopes the Pfizer pill would be ready by Christmas.

This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can subscribe for  more

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