There's no 'debating' - the outcome tomorrow yet, but there's lots of debate as to whether the divergences in this market are going to lead to weakness or as is seasonally common, further firmness as we move into middle July.

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To achieve that you do need a broadening-out, which has only been in spurts so far. It almost wouldn't hurt if Semiconductors and mega-cap techs remain a bit soft or just consolidating, allowing a focus more into better value sectors.

It is simultaneously impossible to ascertain whether the economy if softening enough to motivate the Fed to cut rates earlier, although they already eased a bit with regard to Quantitative Tightening. Today's Auction was again 'solid'.

Once more I'll not elaborate much on what is a continued consolidation, while I do believe consumer reticence is a factor, along with a bifurcated society. As frugality is not a mindset, but rather a compulsion led by higher prices that are not feasible for consumers to sustain, there is pressure on the Fed to finally recognize what they are doing by not rolling back rates at least somewhat.

Market X-ray: 

One recognizes that an easier Fed can dovetail with lower paced earnings growth for a number of stocks, especially Autos and retailers.

I am not thrilled to hear of frugal consumers, again it's compelled by inflation, as people struggle to make ends meet as I've noted for some time. Apparel and discounters alone reference this, even pricey fast-food operations.

For now, we'll see if anything candid emerges from the Debate, probably what might happen is more acrimony from Biden while Trump might try behaving, but then get tripped into wilder rhetoric, but again how much will they address what the American people really worry about contending with. Likely not a lot.

I won't delve into a topic on my mind, which is how 'start-up' chip companies could unseat the presumption about Nvidia (NVDA) as somehow alone as relates to AI. They are dominant in GPU's, and AMD is forthcoming, while Intel is a wannabe so far. What I'm thinking about are a couple non-public tiny chip companies that believe they can unseat the behemoths over time, via an AI-purposed small (less expensive) processor that could become a big deal.

I don't know a lot about this, but I do know that some respected financiers put money into a couple such firms. We can't invest (private), but if 'chip product' actually appears and performs like 10x speeds (incredible to contemplate) the speeds of GPU's now, well it's going to open some eyes. Just not yet. Today I ran this topic by a close friend who's in LA for a premier this week, and yes he affirmed that the types of 'architecture' I was studying to have that potential. It focused on ASIC (chip architecture, not my favorite sneakers) & RISC chips.

We are also watching a private California company I've mentioned before, and that is Anduril. Conversations today suggest they're not yet ready to do their IPO, but that's envisioned in the future, maybe a year or two out (at most).

Bottom-line: 

Economic policy weaponization is a topic now, and maybe we'll get a bit of that at the Debate, especially as it relates to how 'tariffs' on China, will aid some industries and jobs, but also force prices higher in certain areas.

The geopolitical situation is also stressing, note that China caused damage to a Philippines Coast Guard vessel with their water cannons, and the U.S. Navy Admiral in the Pacific said the U.S. stands ready to help if needed.

Another irresolute session presumably, Bank stress tests were adequate (or at least they say so), and how things are framed at the Debate might matter a bit. Otherwise, it's the expected consolidation before ideally a broader stability.

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