Market Briefing For Wednesday June 26
Divergent trends - are mostly superficial, as re-balancing dominates the day and perhaps the week.
I'll just share charts with minimal comments given little need to try to delve into matters beyond what we already have. Sentiment is a bit sobering but that's what's needed to get the Fed to gradually get friendlier.
If the bond traders are right, the economy is indeed getting sluggish and that's implying a significant series of rate cuts, perhaps sooner than many anticipate as the year progresses.
We're seeing the tail-end of remodeling and improvements by homeowners of course benefiting from low-rate mortgages of the past few years, who so far it seems have no desire to 'move', so they upgrade to be current along the way.
We have 'election uncertainty' to contend with but that's not much of a factor, yet. Certainly the 'debate' could see some influences and changes, along with the idea that restricting Chinese imports can contribute to higher costs within the technologically-dependent product mix. For mass-market goods, yes there is a bit of reality to Mexico being the new China, and perhaps Central America chipping in to a degree.
Market X-ray:
Enthusiasts are deflated a bit, bull and bear alike. Nothing big going on at the moment is definitive, as this is a post-Expiration consolidation, and it can persists for another session or two without any dramatic resolution.
There is no change in the prospect for 'broadening' to persist over time, as it's a late June swoon that's perfectly normal seasonally, although bifurcated as we've all had to endure, otherwise (as far as mixed sector behavior).
After the Close, FedEx did soar on 'freight business' increases. Its influence can keep things up in the Index, but again there's nothing earthshattering as far as influences the market's overall prospects. Rivian did run up huge after securing financing from Volkswagen, which, triggered short-covering there.
Bottom-line: consolidation continues. If anything the RIVN and FDX rallies in the late going sort of identify the set of problems the 'bears' have for now, as a bit of favorable news can trigger a short-covering scramble, beyond buying.
I'm not going to speculate on whether the car deal means VW will sell and/or service Rivian vehicles, but while separate, one can contemplate possibilities.
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