"More restrictive 'if' inflation fails to come down" - cuts to the chase about today's FOMC Minutes report, and the market was relieved by virtue of rising a bit, before a late day fade. Sort of a stating the obvious, but that best 'hiking regardless of economic damage', which seemed to some to be their mantra.

All that left the S&P right at a 'technical standard deviation mean' in a sense, which means neutrality persists, especially with all the ongoing variables that face the market, Oil and geopolitics, virtually none of which are resolved, but a couple are seeing developments.

Developments include (which matters) the Oil market ignoring Saudi efforts to hike oil prices, further restrictions or sanctions on Iran, and miserable University of Michigan sentiment reflecting reticence by consumers (which in some ways existed well before now). Amazingly some economists speculate that stagflation could be a risk in the future, and that we might even have a recession (no kidding).

I jest slightly. In reality it's been with us for many months, at the same time we do have a bifurcated economic environment not just a societal division both along economic and political lines. This was really a consolidation session, but acceptable.

There has been a sudden shifting in interest rates, and that's more data-based than a result of monetary policy. The mega-cap tech names benefited a bit in today's trade, as did a handful of selected issues, but none of it generalized.

The Fed may or may not 'break something', but the relief today was the idea of a Fed staying 'data-dependent'. At best it's the seasonal early-to-mid July relief, with everyone nervous about what follows.

You also had some indications of a softening economy, but the Fed stressed a bit more about what they're worried about. On Friday we get the jobs report and yes it's a strange recession if you just view a scarcity of workers. Adding jobs in some areas and unable to get them in other areas.

The reality is lower commodity prices in some but not all areas, and especially Oil heavy which I'd suspected far more likely than thrusting higher as some on Wall Street called for. That doesn't mean events (or even just Putin) couldn't of course shift that again, which is part of the uncertainly as obvious as strong currents in the ocean. And there might even be a shark lurking to bite.

We don't know if there's a 'black swan' Oil attack coming from Moscow, and a few might be viewing the Middle East, although active conflict in the summer heat is usually avoided there (so Iran might not react strongly, though they are talking as if they may).

Bottom-line: 

Nothing changed. Deflationary forces may appear but overnight changes are unlikely. We cannot see a return to previous price levels given an impossibility of 'clawing back' wages, and the reason for less aggressive bear behavior centers around the reality of most stocks hibernating for months.

As we see some work-forces cut (rather than wages) the jobs situation should sort itself out, so we'll be watching for that. Expecting continued alternating or range-bound behavior for the S&P, with little drama for now, barring new flashes.

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