Market Briefing For Thursday, July 29
Disarming SARS-CoV-2 - with pharmaceutical drugs is the 'holy grail' to end the COVID-19 panic, and generally eliminate the panic pressures for vaccines.
Along with nasal sprays / drops, pills can nullify COVID, MaB injections are a pathway to achieve similar ends. I begin with this topic because it's entirely a key to further growth (even accelerating next year), as well as 'normal life'.
So what am I excited about? Well excited and disappointed. Excited that now we've heard from Pfizer's (PFE) CEO that they are sufficiently confident in their new antiviral drug (which we knew about, Merck (MRK) working on one too) to commit a billion dollars to start producing the pills, even as trials remain in Phase 3. So I'm glad to see their confidence, and there's room for multiple treatments. And no I've not heard anything about Merck and Sorrento (SRNE) working together, and I think the antiviral drug and monoclonal antibodies are two entirely different or distinct solutions, either or both of which can be effective to control the virus.
However both pathways to solutions, make the broad 'uncertainty' that nearly all 'experts' paraded on the media sort of curious. Because there's very little if any talk about monoclonal antibodies, or pills, as the focus is to get people to universally vaccinate. Yes neither pills nor drops are yet available, but heavy dose variations can be found. SOC may be fine for 'most', but the promise of treatments (some versions like Regeneron (REGN) might be available if the patients and their doctors heavily press to obtain it) virtually isn't discussed, and that means lives are being put 'at-risk' unnecessarily.
The most typical disingenuous remark is what you hear on TV where a nurse says to the skeptical patient in a hospital 'oh you want the vaccine now, sorry that's not an option, you're too late'. Terrible: tell the patient about monoclonal antibodies. In any event 'awareness' that both prophylactic and treatment pills and nose drops and so on are coming, should calm some extreme angst, as it puts the emphasis where FDA & NIH have side-stepped: vaccine alternatives as well as treatments for those for whom it's supposedly 'too late' or frankly, a lot of folks who have had COVID and if they get it again want a treatment.
This is more important that chattering about the Fed, which simply put, affirms they are talking about talking about tapering, or thinking about it. Meanwhile it seems they continue planning to do nothing until their 'goals' are achieved. Of course that means persisting inflation (more suffering for the very poor) and it bears mentioning since they again used the word as if it were 'transitory'. However, the inflation we are experiencing isn't likely 'transitory', but rather enduring, especially when it comes to wages.
In-sum:
There's no need to excessively focus on the Fed's neutrality, as solving COVID (the disease, whereas SARS-CoV-2 is the virus actually) eclipses policy nuances, such as the Fed Chairman hinted today, but only 'conceptually'. He even was at a loss to really explain how Treasuries are as low as they are.
On COVID, even the Fed Chairman said 'there's no reason (mutations) strains' can't keep coming, and so it's in our interest to see vaccinations go-on around the world'. True, hence as usual, it just doesn't go far enough. But yes, for most people it is surely premature to count on monoclonal antibodies or 'pills', but to know that both are coming has both practical and psychological importance. I might mention that there was very little shorting in Sorrento today (unusual to say the least), as it rose fairly well in low volume. Short-interest is gradually in a decline, which means bears are moving elsewhere, or worried this stock is about to take-off, if any ongoing tests or trials show documented progress.
Disclosure: This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which is distributed nightly and typically includes one or two videos as well as charts and analyses. You can subscribe ...
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I will point out that inflation hurts not only the "very poor", which it certainly does hurt, but that inflation hurts all the folks who are not able to easily increase their incomes or savings to compensate for it. So the portion of the population hurt (at least some level of hurt) is a lot closer to 80%.
But, given that the federal reserve is primarily concerned with benefiting the banking industry, the lack of consideration for the rest of the population is what would be expected.
BUT that does not make it right!