Increasing focus on 'protection' dominates strategy analyst observations, while facts remain skewed with many variables regularly addressed. Reality is that the S&P had advanced a lot from our 'erratic complex' low of September / October; and is actually behaving pretty darn well when put on the defensive.

Without belaboring the numerous questions about monetary policy, fund rates or Fed thinking (which we all know remains hawkish until it doesn't, or as one or more systemic risk events break something); it's also clear that inflation is a subsiding concern, even though nobody seems to recognize that (yet).

Cutting to the chase, Oil prices remained under pressure; Europe's Oil & Gas inventories are just about full (and nearly adequate for the upcoming Winter of challenge) and the setback in Oil stocks is something we also expected since the attack on 120/bbl; with price supports creating a Floor right under here.

This matters a lot; because the U.S. Government was busily selling Oil to our 'friends' at higher prices, and will now be buying Oil at lower prices, which is a reason not to join a pack suddenly getting negative on Oil 'after' it descended.

Housing breaking along with Oil prices busts inflation; so aside the diesel fuel issue (being resolved); you even will see food prices gradually decline. Much of the cost is related to transportation; and that is being eased. Also inventory levels in many 'retail' businesses has gone from 'supply shortage' to 'bloated inventory'; so that may engender deeper discount holiday sales; a minor point.

The primary point is not the relaxation of some day-to-day consumer stress (it won't be celebratory levels, but enough to cause more Fed policy questioning) but in the direction of compelling a slower pace of Fed rate hikes after for sure what has been short-sighted thinking both when rates were too low or high for too long, as is the forthcoming case.

In sum: the flip-flop market persists. Broken up Thanksgiving week ahead; I do expect at least one intraweek rally effort, barring bizarre news risks.

Weekend (final) MarketCast Noon (intraday) MarketCast

Fear dominates and I understand that. Bonds may have nearly peaked (that's a common yield-curve peaking indication); and that dovetails in with avoiding excess negativity. Combine the normal seasonal stabilization and it's hard to justify some of the extreme bearish stuff being heard; other than whimsical on the part of those who overstayed catastrophic expectations.

For that matter I have a sense that even China's Xi understood the dark-side of prospects; so for the moment is behaving himself and trying to organize an emergence of China from an overwrought series of Covid-related lock-downs. Furthermore, with it already clear that much Semiconductor production moves over time to the United States (and Europe), markets may start to anticipate it in terms of improved share prices in the very areas some are now selling (Oil and Semiconductors.. after a retrenchment that's been ongoing).

Sure, it's possible to have more contraction and rough patches develop; but at the same time you've got money managers who 'get it' positioning for 2023 as opposed to bemoaning what to do with their holdings of mega-caps that while still bloated, may be in various stages of completing not starting corrections.

Bottom line: not much changed. Remember: if 'peace breaks out' market will rise and Oil will find a low, not a high. I criticized the excessive energy bullish views in recent months; because Oil had peaked ... as had aspects of inflation.

Next week remains rangebound in a 4-day broken-up trading week; although I suspect there will be another upside try by S&P regardless of Monday's start.

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