Market Briefing For Monday, Nov. 1
"Laundromat Friday" describes the 'wishy-washy' action most of the day. It's actually constructive, after the negative reaction to Amazon and Apple after the Close yesterday; and despite both remaining defensive as they bounced.
Given that the market generally held together throughout the session after the requisite selling wave was very minor in response to those two (as Facebook actually rallied on the name-change and embrace of the 'Matrix'). personally I prefer interacting with 'actual' humans (most of the time), not holograms (but I am old school I guess.. just teasing as I think even youngsters at some point will view merely online 'relationships' as somewhat unrewarding.. and I'm not referring to hard-core gamers who of course relish the online sparring.
This week Europe made it clear they're going to continue ECB bond-buying to March of 2022 (or so); and that infers the 'emergency' by definition continues.
In Europe and South America, where Brazil's President may be prosecuted it seems for incompetent handling of the pandemic (some would say he has lots of company on a global basis as far as inadequate leadership for the times); it reminds us not only of the need for testing and so on; but also that while seemingly Covid's under control; it's not.
There is too much talk about an Oil decline after a couple down days; so that there is more going on than those superficial looks at production or demand. I am referring to the low inventory (referred to as 'stocks') in the huge tanks at Cushing; and there's an argument for higher WTI if that migrates even lower.
However, while everyone is front-running the wave of the future; shifting to EV of course; and carbon-neutral over decades; we are represented in that while also correctly spotting how this would firm Oil over the past year, especially as you have a Government that's not thinking deeply enough about cause(s) and effect(s). An example of that came from President Biden today as he met with President Macron of France and acknowledge the U.S. deal with Australia on nuclear submarines was 'sloppy' at best. (So bring France belatedly aboard.)
On Saturday at G20; the U.S. and much of Europe agreed to remove tariffs on Steel and Aluminum. That will likely be well-received by markets.
In sum: we recognize frothy aspects of this market (especially mega-caps); while certain some of the smaller stocks are doing alright; but dealing with a seasonal propensity to struggle through tax-loss selling from high price buyers who want to maximize deductions for this tax year, regardless of next year.
The big stocks conversely are seeing some selling (even on good news); as a lot of multinational companies will be impacted by higher global corporate tax changes; whether Wall Street analysts believe any of that occurs or not.
Elsewhere...the spreads in yields are a message from the market saying the Fed is going to raise rates and slow economic growth. Interesting. However I don't exactly concur right now because of what the ECB had to say and what is an ongoing challenge that's not as bad as Government wants people sort of to believe, perhaps because they want to get a spending bill passed.
So I don't view all this as negative; and note this is ALWAYS a rocky time most years. I do envision growth on the other side of this time-frame; for markets as well as the economy.
I continue to like Energy, or Oil particularly; but again the gains are solid over the past year, and whether it's Chevron or Oil itself; holding or even firmer is not the same as chasing price. Same can be said for our Ford (F) at this point.
I would be a little concerned about competition getting fierce in 'cloud network computing' and related spaces. Microsoft Azure isn't exactly eating Amazon Web Service for lunch; but they are making inroads on them and even IBM. It probably is better to buy stocks at a discount; or special situations. (Intel as an example is at a discount, but may go on fire-sale, while AMD is strong as well as probably working higher in the long run if Taiwan's not invaded. We've only taken a percentage of the huge AMD gains off the table; retaining most.)
In any event; enjoy the weekend and expect more upside attempts even as it remains a shaky market overall. Ideally more treats before new market tricks.
This is an excerpt from Gene Inger's Daily Briefing, which typically includes one or two videos as well as more charts and analyses. You can subscribe for more
"Enjoy the weekend"? On a Monday? It would be much better if GREED took a break for a while. We really do not need inflation for a while yet, holding steady should be quite adequate, really. The impacts of this ongoing plague are still hurting those folks on the bottom steps of the ladder, and those waiting to get on the ladder, especially. The rich do not really need to get richer just now, holding steady is not failing. And a bit of mercy may even be paid back in unexpected ways. THat can happen.
I'm just the messenger; and foretold this would be an enduring inflation; not transitory; months ago. I agree it's a negative factor. By the way; 'enjoy the weekend' was correct; whatever they quote here is an excerpt of my PRIOR day's report sent to our paying subscribers. So on Monday on this site you see 'portions' of what I wrote on Friday; and none of the stock writeups or videos.
"Have a good weekend" was a line occasionally used at a previous employer to imply the speaker would not be back until the following week. OK on a Friday, disturbing on a Monday. No criticizmof the messenger, but of the situation being described.
The TalkMarkets venue is an awsome place and it seems like the participants are those, mostly, involved with the actual "market" process. So it happens that I often share opinions and considerations that are offered as analternative, as a big part of my career has been considering the secondary effects of various actions. That always requires more information.