Preface: the following Briefing was written Friday; but I was too fatigued to do a video and post this until Saturday. I'm not editing it again; while leaving the global situation as stirred-up and controversial as it was Friday. Not at all convinced that disengaging from Europe (not just Ukraine) is wise; aside what is a budget-cutting crusade that is long overdue; but diminishes U.S. influence and some fear may even embolden adversaries or potential competitors. This clearly is subjective; but beware 'unintended consequences' of policy shifts.

In fact, Mr. Trump’s professed attempts to end the war quickly, 'could' intensify and prolong it, while Mr. Zelensky was not prepared for combative diplomacy, as he too is very tired. If the United States is really ready to abandon Ukraine, Mr. Putin could try seizing more Ukrainian territory; finding still more leverage if and when peace talks ultimately take place.

Perhaps the outcome becomes a stronger NATO with-or-without enthusiasm by the U.S.; given that's already clear.. and reinforces newer Baltic members oft-proclaimed concerns that Russian expansionism has them in their sights. I suspect getting Europe to build-up their militaries is a subtle motivating factor in Trump's tough-guy stance (reminds me of a certain Quentin Tarantino film); plus I suspect Zelensky shockingly misread the shift in U.S. commitments.

At the same time, one thing is disappointing: the American people historically like to believe they are on the side of the underdog; disdain aggression and if not always innocent in all combative moves, keep faith high-ground morality is behind geopolitical decisions. Obviously this is less reassuring 'real-politik'.

Perhaps to fend-off modern high-tech Chinese automobile export threat, it will behoove BMW or Mercedes to rejigger a couple production lines to Defense. I am only slightly cynical about this; Volkswagen already in trouble, needs too.

The unedited comments from Friday follow.

An 'open wound' festers at this hour on Friday; after the geopolitical theater in the Oval Office, we all are aware of it by now. It seemed that Zelensky sort of was 'pressed' to come to Washington to sign the 'minerals' deal; however with 'security assurance' aspects not included 'as such', it was dubious at the start.

Some think that Zelensky was set-up to be ambushed in this way; not sure of that. I also believe there's a language issue that was lost in translation today; a belief by Ukraine that Putin is an enemy 'not only' of Ukraine but of the USA; which is probably central to this days theatrics, as Trump doesn't feel similarly.

This evening reports say President Trump has 'no interest' in restarting talks 'at this time', which followed other reports that Zelensky was ready to resume by flying to Florida (where POTUS is by now). One serious aspect is Ukraine believing the United States has interest in stopping Putin's expansionist wish, as perhaps the U.S. is not so keen (pretty obviously) to get into new conflicts.

The 'public interactions' were more the fault of Zelensky; but language barrier aside, all you had to see was the Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, head in her hands, as she realized how bad the off-the-rail verbal exchanges were. I will perhaps discuss this a bit at dinner Sunday; with my cousin from Paris, who is going to be visiting, as his 30 years diplomatic experience might shed more light that we usually get from media (he was at UN Security Council during the pandemic, and currently French Ambassador to ... Haiti ... a posting that is really like a war-zone deployment ... wife and 5 kids in Paris, so one could imagine being un-enthused about being a prominent Diplomat in ungoverned Haiti).

Market X-ray: 'rough' February ends with geopolitical theatrical drama, which is actually dangerous to the stability of present-day Europe, not just Ukraine; an aspect that is larger than the narrower focus of signing this particular deal.

I'll not expound on the tempestuous talks more for now; media reviews and a view of the actual Oval Office 'public' event are adequately self-explanatory.

March may start mixed, or any false-start rally be faded; intraweek traders do appear, and ideally (if the context of the matters doesn't intrude) position for a rebound continuation; hints were provided even on Friday's comeback tries.

Bottom line: Trump is trying to be very tough; some think this was intended in a sense; and we'll see if the paradigm is changing or not. France and UK both articulated the 'changing dynamics'; but the language issue didn't allow that on Friday; by my interpretation of Zelensky trying to review his words, at the same time he was overshadowed in a sense.

Big day historically; not much is resolved. Bit month; big week too. Pattern for stocks is not terribly comfortable or exciting, but as generally anticipated for a weak defensive February, featuring primarily the breakdown of multinationals, as tariffs loom essentially starting now.

We'll reassess Monday; and might post comment on 'X' should the dynamics between the Presidents change course, after the smackdown (a 'hit the road' finale) at the end. I do not believe Zelensky intended to insult anyone; he isn't in a good position; he slipped-up in language; and Trump took the opening full boat, by bringing in topics like World War 3, and not giving credence to what Zelensky went through, which is why many in Europe liken the Ukrainian leader to a wartime leader like Winston Churchill (in terms of holding the morale of his people).

I'm of course understanding the viewpoint differentials; but this didn't need to go so poorly regardless. That is troubling - the 'make a deal or we're out' part. Attitude needs to diminish; and the public spat is incomprehensible; although it may give a glimpse of 'transactional diplomacy' behind closed doors that we never get to visualize. 

Cheers!

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