Market Briefing For Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Broader-based reciprocal tariffs  are behind rising uncertainty Friday, prior to possible implementation as soon as this coming Monday. Sure we care; but at the same time probably has little to do with stocks we're mostly focused on.

Plus we called weeks ago for a rough February, without confidence S&P has the ability to hold the high-level trading range, which by the say it's still in. At the same time most 'tickers' focused on this year, aren't in big-cap Indexes. If you are a new member you may not realize we've warned of excess valuation in the mega-caps for months; well before they actually topped at least for now.

How is corporate guidance? Not bad. How are Jobs? Softer as noted (charts). How are global markets? Europe soaring; yet stocks up while shambles with their economies and dealing with life impacted by aggressive Islamic invasion aspects (not all of course, but enough to be problematic; influencing politics in much of the EU; hence related to a more nationalistic-governance profile for a lot of those countries.. and I'll not debate the stupidity of antisemitism in much of Europe, whereas the real threat has been 'some' Islamists trying to expand and control entire communities, such as in France and the UK especially..).

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I need not delve into this topic; as I shared the perception of a tormented UK I visited just 4 months ago. (As one Member of Parliament we had dinner with; put it: 'well, London may be lost, but we're England and have it surrounded'. To which I responded 'for now'; thinking of how the very international London metro area has everyone getting along; except that crowd that tries to impose their customs and even laws, and stupid authorities trying to suppress critical speech of the situation; itself is a reflection of intruding foreign influence.) Let us return to what's important in the US, the -AI- football game and stocks :).

And yes, many of the 'commercials' in the Game will contribute to mainstream AI understanding; and I suspect we'll be see lots of AI during the pricey spots intended to help average folks understand the transformational era we're in.

As to a trio of trouble analysts fret about; well, it's our February roller-coaster of tariffs, reciprocal tariffs (that's counter-attack of their responses); and China slowing a bit; plus what I would have expected anyway: mediocre 'mag-seven' earnings and even where good, typically exhausted leadership and retreats. I do think the Jobs number was fairly realistic time time; Unemployment down; while new Jobs down too; layoffs higher and fear the Fed won't cut rates. OK. Oh yes, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey slid a bit.

Market X-ray: sentiment softer; tariff talk rising; geopolitical vagueness; lots of inflation and 10-year Yield worries, and more. How much impacts us now?

Not much. Not hubris; but our focus has been on AI and Quantum Computing and both are doing well; either stable prepping for the next push higher. 

Bottom line: taxes, tariffs, you know it...hard to say, but maybe just hit Friday for S&P; then washout Monday; then relief rally intraweek ahead. All pending.

Macro uncertainty is disconnected for the most part from the tickers focused on this year; aside from observing reasonable resilience really everywhere.

There is 'earnings dispersion' in the sequence of reports; so that's sort of the action you want related to 'broadening-out'; but generally still rough edges for February; while companies doing AI computing at the 'Edge' are doing fine.


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