Market liquidity is bolstered by foreign funds (and domestic) fleeing China; so that is one factor sustaining the extended S&P typically overlooked; even by the robust upgrades to S&P targets issued this week.

That also contributes to a bit more vulnerability 'if' that flow of funds were to moderate. Prospects of that happening are limited if the CCP is really scared about losing control of China to huge tech conglomerates (they are more like the old multi-industry behemoths in the U.S. before those broke-up long ago, for the most part, or continue to exist like say Comcast with diverse holdings that try to complement each other: like NBC / CNBC / Telemundo / Universal).

The other day I speculated on 'possibly' arriving at 'Peak Covid' sooner vs. later. Part of that was a relative dearth of high mortality now in the U.K. But there's not so many anti-vaxxers in Great Britain. That may help explain why Britain's seeing Covid cases fall despite reopening in the middle of a delta outbreak.

The U.K.’s experience, along with 'proper' testing of Sorrento Covi-drops this month, inspires hope that maybe America’s 'delta fever' will break soon, along with progress towards an effective treatment for early symptoms of Covid. But if Britain sees a new surge as school restarts, or the 'nose drops' fail, then we could all be in for a harsh education on both treatment and 'Peak Covid' hope.

Executive summary:

• Jobs numbers were excellent; but do not affirm what happens in August; of course Covid prospects are the unknown determinant of how growth is going to go, and not just in the USA; as it's a huge deal in Asia as well;

• There are conflicting interpretations; as really the near-term remains risky; for the market and as to how Covid impacts it; hard to say if 'peak Covid' is a 'thing' despite my observations of better situations in Sweden, in the U.K., and incidentally in Singapore; almost just enough to say it matters;

• In theory, 'if' August is strong too, it enhances prospects of Fed tapering; a probable start would be trimming their mortgage-bond-buying programs;

• Gold dropped and Bitcoin up (divergence) on the Jobs number; neither is likely definitive ahead; just daily reactions; both might reverse next;

• Institutional adoption of Bitcoin helps; but we remain skeptical of trying to catch waves in that; plus 'regulatory', like SEC, will be coming after it;

• White House says it won't lock-down the economy again; but if we don't get 'peak Covid', people may restrain activity merely somewhat;

• Judging from public reactions (even in Florida hit very badly) everyone keeps on keeping on, and that suggests most are vaccinated and live their lives, without obsessing too much about Covid in daily activities;

• Most will become 'more' active once low-dose MaB's or pills arrive;

• The short-term break in Oil has many talking about lower prices already; sometimes the same crowd I criticized for looking for 80-100; now might move a bit lower; but longer Oil view favors price stability (more below);

• Biden's (50% EV autos by 2030) proposal is a boon mostly for China; of course unless the USA plans to also expand rare-Earth mineral mining; given that EV batteries primarily require materials we largely don't make;

• On the other hand, if Biden intends a soft approach to warming-up again to the Chinese ('carrot, with the stick' being our Navy deployment), giving them a gold mine dominance in EV power components would do that;

• Infrastructure bill likely passes, after last minute bitter battle buttressing both parties, as they dug into the price tag of the whole enchilada;

Meanwhile .. I want to touch on Oil a bit; as it has backtracked just somewhat after a terrific run, that I believed would (and did) coincide with S&P.

Despite Friday trading recovering somewhat from the lows; weekly aggregate declines occur; not surprising as we forewarned 73-74/bbl was sufficient now; aside geopolitical disruptions causing spikes.

So while the overarching sentiment on oil markets remains one of caution, it's somewhat related to seeing China, all Asia, and the United States confronting COVID-19 case surges and that at least temporarily squelches demand. But it won't last because ultimately energy markets will envision post-pandemic era robust economic activity resuming.

Whilst tensions in the Persian Gulf recently did add a new layer of geopolitical upside risk for prices, this was counteracted by the week-on-week hike in US crude inventories due to contracting demand as I've outlined.

Also; The White House non-binding executive order stipulating half of cars or trucks sold in the United States by 2030 should be an EV, hybrid, or fuel-cell vehicle. Concurrently, fuel economy standards are expected to be twice as aggressive as they are now; although I can't imagine auto-makers putting lots of money and engineering into efficiencies of internal combustion engines.

It's a modern day equivalent of making superior stagecoaches in the 1890's, like it or not. Full EV makes us dependent on an unreliable electric grid too as well as electromagnetic weapons (or storm-related power failures) that inhibit much movement .. a gas station may have generators for the pumps; not that much power backup to feed a series of EV chargers. But this is the direction.

However, this restraint-on-trade, high taxes, and years of petro-demand, also provides a 'floor' under Oil because this Government wants higher Oil prices as part of the discouragement to use ICE vehicles. They will likely emulate a Chinese approach: expensive fuel; cheap electric, plus new EV tax credits.

In sum: Friday was a struggle to hold gains together; even with the best Jobs report they could hope for. And I suspect August will not be so impressive; but glad to see there are still more job openings than workers, or so it appears.

Going into the new week little has changed although this report is prepared on Friday before any 'surprise' Saturday developments. Risk persists.