Durable economic or market projections are elusive or contradictory, with so many variables unresolved. Hence commentators retreated to obsessing a lot through pre-holiday trading, by focusing on Twitter and Tesla goings-on. It is almost an Easter-egg hunt to guess which angle will be uncovered next. Of course Tesla heaviness is one reason I wasn't thrilled it was added to S&P.

The reality was that Twitter could do a poison-pill; given a 5% holder (that's Alaweed of Saudi Arabia) signaled Friday morning that he's against the deal; arguably that was all that needed be-known. So, Tesla stayed on defense with not just Elon Musk's possible diversification; but also as he might sell shares to achieve that goal. (He's already been a net seller over many prior months.)

By the time Friday evolved, the Board of Twitter instituted a 'poison pill', thus creating some liability risks and so on; but also inferring they want to control a lot of the narrative, perhaps limiting 'public discourse' about it, going forward.

This Thursday the EU was busy 'drafting' a rule prohibiting Russian Oil being purchased by any member-state. I have no idea if they'll get that passed, with a few countries not only dependent on, but with mixed feelings (Hungary sure comes to mind) about their relationship with Russia. It may be that isolating or basically blockading trade with Russia will unwind that 'old' empire. Fear Putin will 'lash out' (even go nuclear) has many leaders expressing lots of anxiety.

Russia had evolved away from 'actual' democracy (almost had it, some years ago) as anyone who understood Putin recognized; but like several historical autocrats, little effort (if any) was done to contain him or encourage opposition movements when it might have helped (Novotny for instance). Yes, that also is going to correlate to his latest rant against Finland or Sweden considering NATO membership; threatened today to 'destroy' Finland if they do. Probably that kind of threat makes it more likely, not less, that they'll proceed to join.

In sum: the short-term and macro outlook remains complex and uncertain; as we've pointed-out. I wish I could nail-down what happens better; but technical or even fundamental factors for stocks only go so far in this geopolitical mess.

How the world evolves (and particularly Oil prices) continues to determine exit strategies to both end the war, fight inflation, and see Covid in China wane. If you recognize the ability of China to stabilize it's economic picture somewhat; to ease restrictions (presuming they actually can); and for Russia to dominate the East of Ukraine and 'declare victory and stop', well that's an argument for a significant rally; but nobody knows the sequence and timing that follows.

Some stocks like Nike (NKE) have tried to portray everything as 'find and dandy', but perhaps that's an exaggeration. They do manufacture in Vietnam and India as well as others; so there's that. Extrapolating their comment to China 'broadly' is thus inappropriate and probably wrong. If it weren't, Apple wouldn't delay a lot of their product production by several weeks as also newly announced. At the same time on Friday Beijing is talking of easing banking rates (etc.) to try to help small businesses muddle through the Covid lockdowns.

The 'chip' story remains one of higher demand. Samsung dethroned Intel as a top semiconductor vendor; and Taiwan Semiconductor is doing well even with some production snags. Ultimately the sector will benefit from catching a recovery wave so generally should be resilient. Short-term issues aren't over.

The battle between 'inflation peaking' or not; or between higher Oil or not.. or the battle of the wits in takeovers or geopolitics; all of it is part of the fluidity as prevails. Of course the Russian war in Ukraine is currently a primary event, as it impacts everything, led by Oil prices aside limited influence of OPEC with regard to their irritation regarding Iran. Break Oil and inflation eases, making it easier on the Fed to deal with the situation. Not that the Fed controls inflation at this stage (for current reasons beyond higher prices that preceded); but the Fed sort of 'thinks' they have the leverage. They could break the economy but not prices; and that's possibly the stupidest approach to combating inflation. It is a 'supply' more than demand problem; hence not a typical responsive type of inflation that simply hiking rates will address. Rates go up; prices stay up in this situation; so that's sort of what they ought to be wise enough to sidestep.

Then you have the Twitter war just starting; but Elon already won in a way. If nothing else, he got his point across about 'free speech' and almost viewing it as a 'utility' for communication; hence even less reason to be treated privately by regulators; even as he'd contemplate taking it private as a company. As for now, they've got a 'poison pill', but I wouldn't count on this battle being over. If it is, Tesla shares may recover somewhat; and that would help S&P rebound.

Bottom line: there are more than four questions you could ask of this market and the backdrop. War resolution; Oil prices; inflation and China-Covid are 4 that come foremost to mind however. Sorting out Bank earnings (good led by Goldman Sachs) are minimally important and expected. And Goldman isn't exactly a bank; but everyone says they are in this era.

Next week we get a slew of earnings raging from B of A, to Tesla, to P&G, to United Airlines (a tough challenge to match the gains Delta showed); to oil service giant Schlumberger (formerly somewhat relied on Russian business) to American Express (which has behaved shy of other financials).