High level oscillations are 'taxing' investors' patience. However, a persistent inability to advance 'on-top' of a high level slight breakout from consolidation is really more discouraging to the bulls than the bears. It's frantic some of the time as you simply have a fair number of hedgers trying to protect longs with shorts; that then gets run-in, so as they scamper for cover the markets rally, but only briefly.

However, the nature of this market, with multiple 'air-pockets' causing turbulence both in up-and-down drafts, attests to the instability, analytical confusion among even the oldest hands in this market, and of course one basic fact: low liquidity.

Traders see the numerous fact out there, including now 'tech-wreck' fears; most prominent being Intel's (INTC) latest layoff announcement. Or rumors that Apple's (AAPL) latest cutbacks are not merely related to the maturing of the iPhone 6s/+ series; but if iPhone 7 has minimal changes (rumored; other than a dual-lens camera in the + only), then business will be excellent, but not runaway superb.

Combine all this with the obvious concern about Oil's recent leadership ahead of the Sunday Doha meeting (described for days; so won't again); and you have a continuing trading range in the S&P; but concurrently a probable 'lid' on rallying. That's because the rallies are just what we've said: nothing more than panicking the shorts periodically; with almost 'zero' investment-grade buying behind that.

In time here the market will convalesce; which means Oil does better but not so much that it persistently lifts equities beyond the initial phase (already behind); a failure of multiple S&P rallies setting up a more dramatic purge prospect; and no real fundamentals (like better guidance) to underpin the market substantively.

Bottom line: we've explored exactly where we are; and are short the June S&P at the moment from the 2080 level. Clearly that's a positioning in front of Doha, with a bias to the response being bearish for the S&P if not particularly for 'crude oil', with a realization that even a downward reaction in the stock market would, if history this year is a guide, simply get people excited before another rebound.

However a difference might be that the rebound (if merely running more shorts) gets faded far more aggressively, presuming more money managers recognize it as temporary, as they increasingly actually have little interest in buying stocks; but lots of interest in selling rallies. Putting aside the debates over shorter-term machinations, or even the prospects of a Fed move or not, basic fundamentals, and softer business trends (from computers, to autos, to South Florida real estate falling fairly rapidly and generally not reported; a similar phenomena primarily as related to increasingly scrutiny on laundered money purchases, but mostly from the poor currency exchange rates for most foreign buyers). The Apple and Intel stories on Friday are notable with respect to sluggish business conditions too.

There are also financial concerns inherent in the Fed's letter issued JP Morgan (JPM), as a result of its failure to present a credible 'winding-down plan', just in-case it failed. Now Dimon says they won't; have plenty of liquidity; and I don't dispute it. The point is the letter carried large blocks of redacted material with a frightening passage or two not omitted. We don't think that's cause for any panic; and they didn't say JPM could pose a threat to markets. It did say the 'potential threat was to the financial stability of the United States'. That's a passage demanding close examination, which is also why financial media perhaps reported it perfunctorily; but otherwise made no effort to delve into 'why' the Federal Reserved said that.

In sum: we're not making a 'bearish overreach'; au contraire, the stock market's extended advance, whether it persists or not, is the overreach. The game focus has been 'chase the rally' rather than worry about longer-term wealth erosion (a bullish argument has been to buy stocks because of zero, or negative returns of course, if we look abroad too).