E Market Briefing For Friday, Nov. 27

Perseverance - characterizes this stock market, without much 'harvesting' so far, of gains achieved in the most recent upside phase. Consolidation Friday, most likely, will be what we get for the structurally-typical half-session.

That's barring of course any drama, which generally wouldn't occur on Turkey Day itself. Yes there were political pressure in Pennsylvania, as the President chimed-in on a Hearing and urged Guiliani to serve him and save the Nation (they had a witness claiming hundreds of thousands of illegitimate ballots, but unless all this goes somewhere quickly, the market's unlikely to be impressed.

As I've contended for months, this market is interested in stability, and tended to prefer a Trump victory. Contrary to those who think otherwise, Republicans to a substantial degree were frustrated at some of the missteps, perhaps even related to non-COVID issues. Perhaps the states where Trump lost by just a bit but the Congressional Republicans won, reflected this fatigue some had felt.

So, with respect to the 'hail Mary' efforts to reverse the Election (technically as is still alive), while it's unlikely, from a stock market perspective, actually does not matter as much as some think. The market didn't crash with Trump's win in 2016, but soared as we were projecting it would. And here it rallied on Joe Bid's presumed victory, even though some thought it would tank. We're not in a tanking mode, and not going to be near-term, though big-cap value's behind generally (not entirely, some oil, telephony and industrials are still not juiced).

COVID fatigue . . . has permeated most aspects of public life globally. Not just in the USA either. It became essentially politicized between those arguing for stronger controls (perhaps the word 'control' should not be underestimated in a couple ways), which almost always are the same contenting vaccine safety.

We are not epidemiologists or infectious disease experts, but we recognized I would say very early-on in late January and early February how market risks were tremendously heightened at the time, and then on March 23rd (that's as I called it that day "The Inger Bottom") a time of max-fear. Since then, though we have talked a lot (too much at times) about the topic, you'll notice I've said it was 'less' of an impact on the markets, even as it became more politicized.

What matters now is opening the economy, ending lockdowns (and not panic by certain officials -often hypocritical- who think responsibility is for others but not for themselves), and putting vaccines in proper perspective. It's because I am 'not' fear-mongering, but an enthusiast for weeks and weeks about what I call the 'Roaring 20's' (not a Great Depression) that some perceived this as an endorsement of vaccines. Not really, although I hope they actually work.

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William K. 1 month ago Member's comment

An actual anti-viral drug would certainly be a very useful tool to have, and the question of what that direction was not taken should be asked.

The whole problem is that way too many poor choices have been made by those who believe that they are much smarter than the rest of us. Most unfortunate.