Job Openings Dive But Quits Tell A Better Story Of The Weakening Job Market

Job openings, hires, Separations and Quits data from the BLS.

Job openings, hires, Separations and Quits data from the BLS.

Please consider the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for March 2023.

Job Openings

  • On the last business day of March, the number of job openings decreased to 9.6 million (-384,000) and was 1.6 million lower than in December. T
  • he job openings rate was 5.8 percent in March and was down by 1.0 percentage point since December. 
  • In March, job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-144,000) but increased in educational services (+28,000). 

Hires

  • In March, the number of hires was little changed at 6.1 million.
  • The hires rate held at 4.0 percent.
  • Hires decreased in real estate and rental and leasing (-29,000).

Separation Description

  • Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs.
  • Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer.
  • Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

Separation Numbers

  • The number of total separations changed little at 5.9 million in March, and the rate was 3.8 percent for the fourth month in a row. 
  • Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-107,000) but increased in construction (+104,000). 
  • In March, the number and rate of quits changed little at 3.9 million and 2.5 percent, respectively. 
  • The number of quits decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000). 
  • In March, the number and rate of layoffs and discharges increased to 1.8 million (+248,000) and 1.2 percent, respectively. 
  • Layoffs and discharges increased in construction (+112,000), accommodation and food services (+63,000), and health care and social assistance (+42,000). 
  • The number of other separations was little changed in March at 276,000. Other separations decreased in finance and insurance (-31,000) and in real estate and rental and leasing (-7,000). 

Layoffs in construction (+112,000), accommodation and food services (+63,000), and health care and social assistance is significant.

Quits by Sector in Thousands

Job Quits data from the BLS.

Job Quits data from the BLS.

Quits Discussion

  • Quits have peaked everywhere.
  • Relative strength is in the Leisure and Hospitality sector and the Accommodation and Food Service sector, where you would expect it the most.
  • Relative weakness is in Professional and Business Services, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, and Construction.
  • The plunge in Professional and Business Services is notable. 

With layoffs jumping in the leisure and hospitality, construction, and healthcare sectors, the odds of a Fed "accident" keep increasing.


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